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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
July Jobs: Ugh! Yikes! Eesh! Hmmm….
Aug 2, 2024
Nick Bunker, Director of North American Economic Research at Indeed, shares his insights on the disappointing July employment report. He and the hosts explore the troubling trends in job gains and rising unemployment, questioning if these signals point towards a recession. They delve into the complexities of the labor market, discussing ghost job postings and the rise in unemployment due to increased labor supply. The conversation includes a fun statistics game and a debate on the implications of recent economic indicators, all wrapped in engaging banter.
01:17:26
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Quick takeaways
- July's employment report revealed a slowdown with only 114,000 jobs added, signaling potential weakness in the labor market.
- Wage growth remained weak at 0.2%, indicating a cooling labor market that alleviates immediate inflation concerns.
Deep dives
Overview of Job Growth and Industry Trends
The jobs report revealed a headline job growth of 114,000 for July, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. Private sector job growth fell just under 100,000, with downward revisions to previous months contributing to a more concerning outlook. The industry distribution showed that healthcare, hospitality, and public sector jobs led job gains, while the information sector suffered a significant loss of 20,000 jobs. Overall, this suggests a stagnation in job growth, with analysts predicting underlying monthly job growth between 150,000 and 200,000.
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