Global Chief Economist from Boston Consulting Group, Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, discusses macro threats and assessing their seriousness. The podcast covers challenges of tracking book sales, analyzing recent CPI data, AI's impact on labor, navigating economic narratives, types of recessions, geopolitics, and US elections.
Macroeconomic threats are intensifying, demanding attention from decision makers.
Successful moderation of inflation post-COVID-19 shows economic resilience.
Embracing economic eclecticism is key for accurate forecasting and decision-making.
Deep dives
Discussion about CPI Report and Shelter Prices
The podcast delves into the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, highlighting a notable decrease in inflation rates, particularly a 0.1% rise in prices from May to June. The analysis focuses on critical areas like shelter prices, revealing a significant moderation with a 0.2% increase in CPI for shelter. This slower increase in shelter prices, alongside reduced hotel rates, contributed to the overall softening of the CPI figures, indicating a positive trend towards disinflation.
Economic Recovery and Inflation Trends
In discussing the broader economic landscape, the podcast showcases the successful moderation of inflation amidst the COVID-19 pandemic recovery. The conversation emphasizes the gradual return to stable economic conditions, supported by insights on historical models and policy responses. It underlines the impact of timely government interventions and the resilience of the global economy in overcoming challenges, pointing towards a controlled disinflationary trajectory and dispelling fears of sustained inflationary pressures.
Challenges and Opportunities in Economic Analysis
The podcast highlights the importance of diversified economic analysis through the lens of economic eclecticism. By advocating for a multi-disciplinary approach to economic forecasting, the discussion encourages decision-makers to move beyond traditional models and embrace varied perspectives. It underscores the significance of historical context, political economies, and global dynamics in forming accurate economic judgments, challenging the reliance on singular models and promoting a holistic understanding of economic phenomena.
Economics and Multidisciplinarity
Economics encompasses various disciplines like politics, international relations, history, and finance, reflecting economic eclecticism. This approach requires building judgment rather than relying on one theory, leading to operational challenges for decision-makers as macroeconomic factors hold a prominent position in boardroom discussions and demand deeper engagement from investors.
Recessions and Geopolitical Risks
Analyzing recession risks necessitates a narrative-driven approach focusing on real economy recessions, monetary policy-driven recessions, and financial crises. The low probability of imminent recession stems from factors such as the resilience of the real economy, the potential impact of policy errors, and the complex nature of financial system risks. Geopolitical risks, although significant, exhibit unpredictable impacts on economies, underscoring the need for cautious analysis beyond straightforward correlations.
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group’s Global Chief Economist, joins the Inside Economics team to share his views on the economy and discuss his newly published book. He makes the case that macroeconomic threats are intensifying and can no longer be ignored by decisionmakers. He also provides a nifty framework for how to assess the seriousness of these threats and not get caught up in the doom and gloom that often characterize them.
Today's Guest: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak - Global Chief Economist, Boston Consulting Group,
Guest Host: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics
Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics
Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn
Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.
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