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Phil Gunson

Senior analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Caracas, offering on-the-ground analysis of Venezuelan politics, security dynamics, and humanitarian conditions.

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43 snips
Jan 8, 2026 • 1h 22min

What Comes Next in Venezuela

Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Caracas, provides insights into the volatile situation in Venezuela following Nicolás Maduro's capture. He discusses Delcy Rodríguez's precarious balancing act and the military's influence on power dynamics. Former U.S. official Juan S. González shares perspectives on U.S. policy and the regional implications of recent events. Both experts highlight the challenges of engaging the opposition and warn against potential chaos from heavy-handed interventions.
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23 snips
Jan 5, 2026 • 30min

Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela?

Phil Gunson, a senior Andes region analyst at the International Crisis Group, shares insights on Venezuela's political turmoil. He breaks down the U.S. military operation that led to Maduro's capture, discussing its chaotic execution and public reaction. Gunson explores Delcy Rodríguez's rise to power and potential U.S. oil-for-stability deals, emphasizing military preferences for stability over risk. He also highlights the opposition's struggles, internal power rivalries, and the grim humanitarian outlook for Venezuelans amidst ongoing tensions.
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Oct 31, 2025 • 44min

Drug War or Regime Change? Trump’s Venezuela and Western Hemisphere Policy

Phil Gunson, a Venezuela and Andes expert at the International Crisis Group, and Renata Segura, the organization's Director for Latin America & Caribbean, delve into the U.S. military buildup near Venezuela. They discuss the effectiveness and implications of recent strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats. The conversation explores the complexities of U.S. policy changes, Venezuelan public sentiment, and the risks posed by regional armed groups. They also weigh the potential consequences of escalating tensions and the mixed reactions from Latin American leaders.
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Jan 13, 2026 • 21min

New reporting finds immigration agents are using banned chokeholds to make arrests

Nicole Foy, a ProPublica reporter, uncovers shocking instances of ICE agents employing chokeholds, despite a ban on such tactics following George Floyd's murder. She shares vivid examples, including a disturbing incident involving a one-year-old child during a carotid hold. Meanwhile, Phil Gunson offers insights from Caracas about the current political landscape in Venezuela, highlighting the control exerted by security forces and the uncertain future for opposition leaders. He also discusses the complex role of oil in stabilizing the economy amid ongoing tension.
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Jan 8, 2026 • 1h 8min

The Trump Administration and Venezuela: What Now?

Phil Gunson, a Senior Analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group, Francisco Monaldi, a Latin American energy expert, and Cindy Arnson, a political economy specialist, dive into the tumultuous aftermath of the Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela. They explore the political implications of Maduro's removal, the fractured Venezuelan economy, and the role of Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader. The guests also discuss Cuba's dependency on Venezuelan oil, the complexities of U.S. engagement, and the obstacles to achieving a stable governance transition.
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Jan 5, 2026 • 19min

The US has captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Now what?

Phil Gunson, a senior analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group, and Luis Duno-Gottberg, a Venezuelan scholar at Rice University, share their insights after the U.S. military captured Nicolás Maduro. They discuss the swift complexities of the raid, the implications for power dynamics within Venezuela, and fears among citizens about continued governance. Luis highlights Venezuelans' yearning for peace and basic needs while pondering U.S. motives. Both guests emphasize the resilience within Venezuela as it faces uncertain political waters.
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Dec 8, 2025 • 12min

Is regime change in Venezuela imminent?

Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, shares insights from Caracas on the mounting pressures in Venezuela. He discusses U.S. military threats and their implications for daily life in crisis-ridden Venezuela. Gunson explains how Venezuelans perceive these threats as intimidation tactics against Maduro, whose regime he assesses as resilient yet conflicted. He warns of the risks of forced regime change, including the potential for power vacuums and prolonged conflict, while shedding light on the complexities of Venezuela's drug trade and the role of oil.
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Dec 4, 2025 • 36min

Will Maduro's Regime Survive Trump's Pressure?

Phil Gunson, a Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group and Venezuela expert based in Caracas, reveals vital insights into Maduro's enduring regime. He discusses the crucial role of Cuban intelligence in maintaining military loyalty and the regime's financial support through gold mining and sanctions evasion. Gunson highlights the challenges of destabilizing Maduro’s dictatorship, the risks of power struggles, and the realities of daily life in Venezuela, including food shortages and blackouts. His firsthand perspective sheds light on the complexities of Venezuelan politics.
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Oct 10, 2025 • 33min

El narco como excusa: Trump, Maduro y la escalada militar en el Caribe

Phil Gunson, analista senior del International Crisis Group con profunda experiencia en Venezuela, aborda la creciente tensión militar en el Caribe. Discute cómo Estados Unidos justifica sus ataques a embarcaciones venezolanas bajo la premisa del narcotráfico, mientras el chavismo muestra fracturas internas. Gunson resalta el papel de Maduro y su retórica antiimperialista, y analiza las implicaciones legales y regionales de las acciones estadounidenses. Además, explora las diferencias estratégicas entre Venezuela y México en la lucha antidrogas.
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Aug 15, 2024 • 28min

Maduro’s humiliating election

Phil Gunson, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group based in Caracas, and Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue, delve into Venezuela's chaotic political landscape. They question how Nicolás Maduro can retain power amid claims of election fraud and increasing dissent. The duo discusses Venezuela's dire economic situation, the implications of international mediation, and the growing authoritarianism that threatens the nation’s future. The conversation is a riveting exploration of a country at a critical crossroads.

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