One Decision Will Maduro's Regime Survive Trump's Pressure?
Dec 4, 2025
Phil Gunson, a Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group and Venezuela expert based in Caracas, reveals vital insights into Maduro's enduring regime. He discusses the crucial role of Cuban intelligence in maintaining military loyalty and the regime's financial support through gold mining and sanctions evasion. Gunson highlights the challenges of destabilizing Maduro’s dictatorship, the risks of power struggles, and the realities of daily life in Venezuela, including food shortages and blackouts. His firsthand perspective sheds light on the complexities of Venezuelan politics.
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Limits Of Maximum-Pressure Tactics
- Trump’s renewed maximum-pressure strategy assumes military threat will topple Maduro, but Phil Gunson doubts it will work.
- Without boots on the ground, naval presence and strikes are unlikely to change regime control.
Military Secured By Surveillance
- Cuban intelligence and close surveillance have reshaped Venezuela's military into a hard-to-penetrate institution.
- Over 170 officers are detained, making internal coups risky and unlikely.
How Sanctions Were Circumvented
- Maduro survived sanctions by exploiting gold mining and illicit networks to fund the regime and reward military elites.
- Gold mines supply cash to generals and fuel smuggling that helps keep the state afloat.