One Decision

Liza Tobin, former China Director at the U.S. National Security Council, dives into China’s grip on the rare earth mineral market. She explains how decades of strategic policy and Western outsourcing have led to U.S. dependency. The conversation touches on the potential impacts of the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting and China’s weaponization of rare earths as a bargaining tool. Liza also discusses the implications for semiconductor production, stockpiling efforts, and how Western nations can navigate their economic fragility in this critical supply challenge.

The discussion kicks off with the U.S. deploying an aircraft carrier near Venezuela, raising questions about regime change versus drug interdiction. The hosts delve into the legal controversies surrounding U.S. tactics and the significant role of Maduro’s ties with Russia and China. They explore the implications of Argentina's surprising elections, highlighting Trump’s backing of President Javier Milei's economic policies. Amidst political pressures, how secure is Milei's position? Tune in for a fascinating look at the geopolitics shaping Latin America!

Mark Galeotti, a prominent Russian military scholar and author, joins the discussion to unravel the complexities of Putin's war in Ukraine. He reveals how Putin, surrounded by yes-men, believes he's winning while burning through Russia's future. Galeotti warns of the long-term economic damage and the unpredictability of a post-Putin Russia. He also addresses military morale, potential succession scenarios, and the importance of rearming Europe in response to Russian aggression. His insights offer a sobering look at the ongoing conflict.

The hosts dissect Trump's dramatic shift on Tomahawk missile support for Ukraine during his meeting with Zelensky. They discuss the disappointment felt by Zelensky and the fiery tone of the talks, alongside speculation about a potential summit with Putin in Hungary. European leaders' reactions and the implications for Ukraine are highlighted, as well as the rising concern over alleged Chinese espionage in the UK. The podcast delves into how these developments could impact British politics and international relations.

Eric Garcetti, the former Mayor of Los Angeles and U.S. Ambassador to India, shares insights on the complex U.S.-India relationship. He discusses the impact of Trump’s tariffs and sanctions on diplomatic ties and the personal dynamics between leaders like Trump and Modi. Garcetti argues that India's growing global role can enhance cooperation and emphasizes the importance of cities in leading climate action, especially when countries falter. He also reflects on tense moments in U.S.-India intelligence cooperation and the challenges posed by regional rivalries.

Sir Richard Dearlove, the former MI6 Chief, shares his insights on the potential outcomes of the Israel-Gaza peace deal. He addresses the precarious situation of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the risk of new extremist movements. The discussion includes the challenges of disarming Hamas and the crucial role of Arab states in enforcing a truce. They explore the daunting task of Gaza's reconstruction, predicting a decade-long effort, and analyze Iran's potential shifts in strategy. Dearlove emphasizes the importance of security oversight in this fragile landscape.

Pascal Lamy, the former Director-General of the World Trade Organization, dives into the complexities of tariffs and globalization. He argues that America’s tariff policy could backfire and harm the U.S. first. Lamy also highlights how the rule of force is now overshadowing trade, and he warns that growing threats to democracy might destabilize Europe. He emphasizes the need for the EU to integrate politically and defense-wise to ensure its survival against shifting global powers.

Priti Patel, UK Shadow Foreign Secretary and former government minister, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, former Prime Minister of Ukraine, share insights from the Warsaw Security Forum. Patel emphasizes NATO's need for unity against Russia's grey warfare while addressing Europe's refugee challenges. Yatsenyuk discusses drone incursions as direct tests of NATO's resolve and the limitations of sanctions on Russia. Both guests highlight Ukraine's vital role in European security and the importance of humanitarian concerns amid conflict.

Hanno Pevkur, Estonia's Minister of Defense, discusses the ongoing Russian provocations aimed at dividing NATO and the importance of Western unity in support of Ukraine. Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges provides operational insights on Ukraine's military needs and the strategic failures of Russia. Both guests emphasize the significance of NATO's coherence and share thoughts on addressing European defense funding and the necessary military assistance for Ukraine's success. Their insights reveal critical dynamics shaping Europe's security landscape in light of ongoing conflicts.

At the Warsaw Security Forum, the discussion reveals Poland's crucial role in NATO and its transformation since the Cold War. Experts analyze Russia's drone threats and airspace violations while highlighting Moldova's recent election as a sign of declining Russian influence. Ukraine's growing drone industry emerges as a key player in Europe, showcasing potential arms exports. Conversations also explore NATO's shortcomings against drone threats and the feasibility of a protective barrier along borders, raising important legal and practical challenges in modern warfare.