One Decision Inside China's Chokehold on Rare Earth Minerals
Oct 30, 2025
Liza Tobin, former China Director at the U.S. National Security Council, dives into China’s grip on the rare earth mineral market. She explains how decades of strategic policy and Western outsourcing have led to U.S. dependency. The conversation touches on the potential impacts of the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting and China’s weaponization of rare earths as a bargaining tool. Liza also discusses the implications for semiconductor production, stockpiling efforts, and how Western nations can navigate their economic fragility in this critical supply challenge.
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Rare Earths As A Negotiating Lever
- China used rare earth export controls as a bargaining chip in recent US-China negotiations.
- A pause in Chinese export curbs could be confirmed after the Trump-Xi meeting and would calm markets.
Decades Of Strategic Chinese Build-Up
- China's dominance is a deliberate decades-long strategy, not a surprise.
- The West outsourced dirty, unprofitable mining and processing, enabling China's choke point.
Processing, Not Geology, Created The Choke Point
- Rare earths are widespread geologically but processing is the choke point.
- China invested in unprofitable, dirty processing at scale and subsidized firms to dominate refinement.