
The Foreign Affairs Interview What Comes Next in Venezuela
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Jan 8, 2026 Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Caracas, provides insights into the volatile situation in Venezuela following Nicolás Maduro's capture. He discusses Delcy Rodríguez's precarious balancing act and the military's influence on power dynamics. Former U.S. official Juan S. González shares perspectives on U.S. policy and the regional implications of recent events. Both experts highlight the challenges of engaging the opposition and warn against potential chaos from heavy-handed interventions.
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Immediate Mood In Caracas
- Maduro's capture has left Caracas tense and eerily quiet, with security forces harassing civilians and journalists.
- The government feels defenseless and faces an existential dilemma between capitulation and violent resistance.
Where Real Power Lies
- Delcy Rodríguez and her brother control diplomacy but lack real command of the armed forces and intelligence apparatus.
- Power holders with the guns (Padrino, Cabello) can make or break any political deal, limiting her room to maneuver.
A Pragmatic But Problematic Bargain
- There may be a 'zone of possible agreement' where U.S. pragmatic demands meet regime survival instincts, sidelining democratic transition.
- Without meaningful opposition inclusion, long-term political resolution looks unlikely and risks neo-colonial outcomes.

