Hold Your Fire! Drug War or Regime Change? Trump’s Venezuela and Western Hemisphere Policy
Oct 31, 2025
Phil Gunson, a Venezuela and Andes expert at the International Crisis Group, and Renata Segura, the organization's Director for Latin America & Caribbean, delve into the U.S. military buildup near Venezuela. They discuss the effectiveness and implications of recent strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats. The conversation explores the complexities of U.S. policy changes, Venezuelan public sentiment, and the risks posed by regional armed groups. They also weigh the potential consequences of escalating tensions and the mixed reactions from Latin American leaders.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Disproportionate Naval Buildup
- The US sent an unusually large naval deployment to the Southern Caribbean framed as counter-narcotics operations.
- Phil Gunson says the scale of forces is disproportionate to the strikes on small boats and invites alternative explanations.
Deaths From Boat Strikes
- Renata Segura reports 14 boats bombed and 58 people killed, with only three survivors identified at the time of the podcast.
- Phil Gunson notes evidence is lost when boats are destroyed and the US has not publicly presented prestrike intelligence.
Fentanyl Won't Be Stopped At Sea
- Fentanyl, the US's primary drug concern, mainly travels overland from Mexico, not by small boats from Venezuela.
- Renata Segura argues strikes on Caribbean boats are unlikely to affect the fentanyl crisis significantly.