Hold Your Fire!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Cameroon expert Arrey E. Ntui and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jézéquel. Richard first talks with Arrey about the fallout from Cameroon’s disputed elections, growing public anger toward President Paul Biya – the world’s oldest serving head of state – and opposition protests. They also assess how the political crisis might affect Cameroon’s long-running Anglophone conflict and risks for further escalation. Richard then turns to Jean-Herve to discuss the blockade imposed by the militant group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has cut off fuel supplies to the capital Bamako. They examine why the military has struggled to secure key supply roads, whether the blockade signals a shift in JNIM’s strategy, how it might shape public sentiment toward Mali’s military rulers and whether the blockade paves the way for a jihadist takeover.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Cameroon and Mali pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Phil Gunson, a Venezuela and Andes expert at the International Crisis Group, and Renata Segura, the organization's Director for Latin America & Caribbean, delve into the U.S. military buildup near Venezuela. They discuss the effectiveness and implications of recent strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats. The conversation explores the complexities of U.S. policy changes, Venezuelan public sentiment, and the risks posed by regional armed groups. They also weigh the potential consequences of escalating tensions and the mixed reactions from Latin American leaders.

Shewit Woldemichael, a crisis expert on Sudan, and Alan Boswell, Director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group, dive into the RSF's shocking capture of El Fasher. They reveal how this seizure follows a year-long siege, leading to a humanitarian crisis marked by civilian violence. The conversation touches on the de facto partition of Sudan, with RSF controlling the west and the army the east. They also explore the implications for U.S.-led ceasefire efforts, highlighting the complex geopolitical dynamics and internal divisions within the Sudanese armed forces.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Yemen expert Ahmed Nagi about what the ceasefire in Gaza means for the Israel-Houthi conflict, risks of further attacks in the Red Sea and the future of the intra-Yemeni peace process. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Yemen expert, Ahmed Nagi, to discuss where the Israel-Houthi conflict may be headed after the ceasefire in Gaza. They examine the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which the group links to Israel’s assault on Gaza. They assess Israel’s recent attacks in Yemen that killed senior Houthi political and military figures, and how the group is adapting. They also unpack the Houthis’ ties to Tehran, as they have become the most capable actor within Iran’s “axis of resistance”, as well as the group’s sharper rhetoric against Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. Finally, they discuss the standoff between the Houthis and its Yemeni rivals, the state of the internationally recognised government under the Presidential Leadership Council, risks of renewed conflict, and prospects for reviving intra-Yemeni talks.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Yemen country pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Ibraheem Bahiss, an Afghanistan expert, and Samina Ahmed, South Asia director, delve into the recent clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces. They explore the turbulent relationship between Kabul and Islamabad, revealing why the Taliban struggles to control the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Samina highlights the rising militant violence in Pakistan and its impact on civilians. Both guests also consider Pakistan's shifting foreign relations, including newfound ties with Saudi Arabia and the U.S., amidst concerns over India's role in Afghanistan.

Shewit Woldemichael, a Crisis Group Sudan expert, shares insights on the intense conflict in Sudan, including the dire humanitarian crisis in El Fasher. Alan Boswell, who analyzes military dynamics in the Horn of Africa, discusses the escalating arms race fueled by external interests. Yasmine Farouk highlights the Gulf states' conflicting strategies in supporting either a civilian government or military control. Together, they evaluate the Quad's recent peace roadmap, its potential impact, and the mixed reactions from local factions.

Rob Malley, former president of the International Crisis Group and U.S. special envoy to Iran, delves into the nuances of Gaza, Trump's peace plan, and insights from his new book on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He discusses Hamas's conditional acceptance of negotiations and the complexities of hostage dynamics. Malley also critiques the failures of the two-state solution and examines the impact of historical missed opportunities. The conversation reflects on societal trauma and explores innovative alternatives to conventional peace frameworks in the region.

Michael Hanna, a U.S. director at the International Crisis Group, reveals how Trump's Gaza plan formed amid regional pressures. Max Rodenbeck analyzes the deal's implications, highlighting its benefits for Israel while shifting Gaza's burdens globally. Amjad Iraqi shares urgent Palestinian reactions, stressing concerns over limited agency and the humanitarian fallout. They unpack key uncertainties, including security provisions and governance, and discuss the plan's reception among Israeli politicians and regional allies, all against the backdrop of ongoing conflict.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts to end the war, and what might lie ahead.In this episode of Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Ukraine expert Lucian Kim, Europe director Olga Oliker and chief of policy Stephen Pomper. They unpack recent developments along Ukraine’s frontlines and the role of drones. They discuss President Trump’s August meeting with President Putin in Alaska, the Trump team’s mixed messages  on what kind of deal Russia and Ukraine might be willing to accept, and what to make of Trump’s rhetoric at the UN General Assembly. They also look at the mood in Ukraine and the recent controversy over a bill that would have curbed anti-corruption agencies. Finally, they touch on Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO countries, whether Moscow might further test NATO’s resolve and the future of European security.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our commentary Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War and our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan about what to expect from this year’s UN General Assembly High-Level Week. They discuss the mood at the UN as the second Trump administration both finds its feet at the world body and makes drastic funding cuts, forcing the UN to scale back humanitarian operations and lay off thousands of staff in New York and agencies. They examine the conflicts likely to dominate the agenda, including mounting global fury at Israel’s assault on Gaza, shifting global views on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the conflict in Sudan, and the challenges of Syria’s new government in its dealings with the UN. Finally, they consider the future of UN peacekeeping and whether the organisation can endure as much of the post-1945 multilateral order unravels.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For More, check out our latest briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2025-2026, our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2025 and our Multilateral Diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.