Hold Your Fire!

Ali Vaez, Iran Director at the International Crisis Group, dives deep into the explosive protests sweeping across Iran, fueled by anger against the regime’s brutality. He sheds light on the deadly crackdown amidst an information blackout and the challenges protesters face. Vaez discusses the limitations of potential U.S. military actions, debates over political transformation, and the role of key figures like Reza Pahlavi. The conversation uncovers the crossroads between economic grievances and calls for a constitutional referendum, revealing a nation on the brink of change.

Renata Segura, Director for Latin America & Caribbean at the International Crisis Group, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, dive into the U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. They discuss the Chavista government's surprising cohesion under U.S. pressure for oil concessions. The conversation explores the implications for Cuba and broader Latin America, and questions whether a democratic transition is feasible. They also analyze the Trump administration's provocative rhetoric regarding Greenland and the potential challenges for U.S. foreign policy.

Phil Gunson, a senior Andes region analyst at the International Crisis Group, shares insights on Venezuela's political turmoil. He breaks down the U.S. military operation that led to Maduro's capture, discussing its chaotic execution and public reaction. Gunson explores Delcy Rodríguez's rise to power and potential U.S. oil-for-stability deals, emphasizing military preferences for stability over risk. He also highlights the opposition's struggles, internal power rivalries, and the grim humanitarian outlook for Venezuelans amidst ongoing tensions.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Moncrieff about the Rwanda-backed M23’s advance into Uvira in eastern DR Congo and where the war and the diplomacy to end it might be headed. They discuss what’s driving the group’s latest offensive, what governance looks like in M23-held areas, its reliance on Rwanda, and its ambitions through its political arm, the Congo River Alliance (or AFC). They then examine President Félix Tshisekedi’s resilience despite battlefield setbacks, Burundi’s deepening involvement, and rising tensions with Rwanda. Finally, they unpack the mediation tracks led by Qatar and the U.S., President Donald Trump’s dealmaking, the value of its business elements and prospects for reaching at least a durable ceasefire. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Matthew Wheeler, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Southeast Asia, about the renewed clashes along the Thailand-Cambodia border. They explore the origins of the long-running dispute and the triggers for the latest round of fighting, which has shattered a ceasefire reached in Malaysia in late July and displaced more than half a million people. They examine calculations in Bangkok and Phnom Penh, the rising nationalist sentiment in Thailand, and the fallout from a leaked phone call between then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen in June. They also assess diplomacy to end the fighting, Malaysia’s mediation, and President Donald Trump’s role in brokering the July truce. As fighting continues despite Trump’s claim to have forged another ceasefire, they discuss why a quick de-escalation looks less likely this time around.For more, check out Matthew’s analyst’s notebook, “Ceasefire Collapses as Heavy Fighting Erupts along Cambodia-Thailand Border”, as well as our Cambodia and Thailand pages.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for dialogue promotion, to discuss Syria’s transition after the fall of the Assad regime and the political evolution of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. They talk about al-Sharaa’s recent trip to the White House and Washington’s evolving Syria policy and sanctions relief. They examine how life has changed under Syria’s new leadership and the daunting task the authorities face in unifying the country’s armed groups, including efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the north east. They also delve into outbreaks of sectarian violence in Alawite and Druze-majority areas, concerns about the political transition’s inclusiveness and Syria’s complicated relations with Israel. Finally, they trace al-Sharaa’s evolution from his militant past to the Syrian presidency and discuss whether domestic headwinds could derail his achievements on the world stage.For more, check out our Syria page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Cameroon expert Arrey E. Ntui and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jézéquel. Richard first talks with Arrey about the fallout from Cameroon’s disputed elections, growing public anger toward President Paul Biya – the world’s oldest serving head of state – and opposition protests. They also assess how the political crisis might affect Cameroon’s long-running Anglophone conflict and risks for further escalation. Richard then turns to Jean-Herve to discuss the blockade imposed by the militant group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has cut off fuel supplies to the capital Bamako. They examine why the military has struggled to secure key supply roads, whether the blockade signals a shift in JNIM’s strategy, how it might shape public sentiment toward Mali’s military rulers and whether the blockade paves the way for a jihadist takeover.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Cameroon and Mali pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Phil Gunson, a Venezuela and Andes expert at the International Crisis Group, and Renata Segura, the organization's Director for Latin America & Caribbean, delve into the U.S. military buildup near Venezuela. They discuss the effectiveness and implications of recent strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats. The conversation explores the complexities of U.S. policy changes, Venezuelan public sentiment, and the risks posed by regional armed groups. They also weigh the potential consequences of escalating tensions and the mixed reactions from Latin American leaders.

Shewit Woldemichael, a crisis expert on Sudan, and Alan Boswell, Director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group, dive into the RSF's shocking capture of El Fasher. They reveal how this seizure follows a year-long siege, leading to a humanitarian crisis marked by civilian violence. The conversation touches on the de facto partition of Sudan, with RSF controlling the west and the army the east. They also explore the implications for U.S.-led ceasefire efforts, highlighting the complex geopolitical dynamics and internal divisions within the Sudanese armed forces.