Hold Your Fire!

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez and Michael Wahid Hanna about U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming trip to the Gulf and how much the Iran nuclear talks, the Gaza war and other regional crises will feature on the agenda.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Director, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming visit to the Gulf. They unpack Washington’s priorities for the trip, the role regional peace and security might play in Trump’s discussions with Gulf Arab leaders, and what Riyadh and other capitals hope to get from his visit. They assess the state of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the incentives on both sides to reach a deal, and obstacles to diplomacy. They also examine other issues that might feature in Trump’s discussions in the Gulf, including Israel’s new war plans and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, sanctions relief for Syria and the war in Sudan.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue membership in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and the U.S. response, and Moscow’s position. They also explore Washington’s negotiating tactics, including its threat to withdraw from the talks if an agreement isn’t reached soon, and the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Finally, they discuss the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire given Putin’s belief he has the battlefield advantage, and whether Moscow’s position on negotiations to end the war has shifted.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our recent statement “Deal or No Deal, a Basis for Talks about Peace in Ukraine” and our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the earthquake that struck central Myanmar last Friday. They examine the devastation in Myanmar’s second largest city, Mandalay, and other hard-hit areas, how U.S. aid cuts have hampered the emergency response and the extent to which China and others have stepped in. They explore how Myanmar’s civil war complicates relief efforts, with the army largely absent from rescue operations, and whether the disaster might impact military leader Min Aung Hlaing’s grip on power. They also unpack the evolving policies of Myanmar’s big neighbours, China and India, and what might break a stalemate in an increasingly intractable and neglected crisis.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our recent Q&A “Support Vital for Myanmar’s Quake Victims, Despite Military Obstacles”, our briefing “Disquiet on the Western Front: A Divided Resistance in Myanmar’s Chin State” and our Myanmar country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Max Rodenbeck, the Israel-Palestine director at Crisis Group, provides expert insights on Israel's return to military action. Mairav Zonszein discusses Israeli public sentiment towards the government's response to the hostage crisis, while Amjad Iraqi highlights the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Michael Wahid Hanna analyzes U.S. support for Israel's campaign amidst a shifting Middle East policy. They delve into the complexities of negotiating peace, the role of Hamas, and the mounting pressures on both Palestinians and Israelis.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump administration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of European troops in Ukraine. They assess the role of France in Europe and debates around extending its nuclear umbrella to eastern Europe. They also discuss whether the Trump administration’s unorthodox diplomacy might bear fruit in the Middle East.  For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Berkay Mandıracı, a Turkey expert, Lahib Higel, an Iraq analyst, and Dareen Khalifa, a senior dialogue advisor, dive into the implications of the PKK's ceasefire declaration. They dissect the motivations behind Turkey's initiative and its effects on the PKK's leadership in Iraq. The conversation also encompasses how this ceasefire impacts relations with Iraq and the dynamics in northeastern Syria, including the challenges faced by the Syrian Democratic Forces amid Turkish military pressures and evolving regional alliances.

Shewit Woldemichael, a Crisis Group’s Sudan expert, and Alan Boswell, director for the Horn of Africa, dive deep into Sudan's tumultuous conflict. They analyze the Sudanese army's recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces and the dire humanitarian crisis that ensues. The discussion uncovers the shifting power dynamics, with each faction vying for political influence and control. They also tackle the rising concerns over U.S. disengagement and how it could reshape regional power dynamics. A gripping exploration of conflict, politics, and international involvement!

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders or NATO membership and Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at the Munich Security Conference. They discuss the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh intended to lay groundwork for further diplomacy to end the Ukraine war and what role Kyiv and Europe might play in future rounds. They assess whether European capitals can step up to shape the future of the continent's security. They also discuss dynamics within President Trump's team, what to make of his statements about the U.S.’s own territorial expansion and his attacks on Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump administration and whether supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s dismissive stance on diplomacy with Washington leaves any room for talks. They look at Iran’s diminished regional influence, given Israel’s hammering of Iran-backed militant groups, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, and whether its increased vulnerability changes its nuclear calculations. They talk about what maximum pressure might entail this time around and whether European capitals might reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, which they can still do before October as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Finally, they assess what a diplomatic initiative to revive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might look like and how regional powers like Saudi Arabia can help.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent EU Watchlist commentary “Test Diplomacy with a Weakened Iran” and our Iran country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.