Hold Your Fire!

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts to end the war, and what might lie ahead.In this episode of Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Ukraine expert Lucian Kim, Europe director Olga Oliker and chief of policy Stephen Pomper. They unpack recent developments along Ukraine’s frontlines and the role of drones. They discuss President Trump’s August meeting with President Putin in Alaska, the Trump team’s mixed messages  on what kind of deal Russia and Ukraine might be willing to accept, and what to make of Trump’s rhetoric at the UN General Assembly. They also look at the mood in Ukraine and the recent controversy over a bill that would have curbed anti-corruption agencies. Finally, they touch on Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO countries, whether Moscow might further test NATO’s resolve and the future of European security.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our commentary Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War and our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan about what to expect from this year’s UN General Assembly High-Level Week. They discuss the mood at the UN as the second Trump administration both finds its feet at the world body and makes drastic funding cuts, forcing the UN to scale back humanitarian operations and lay off thousands of staff in New York and agencies. They examine the conflicts likely to dominate the agenda, including mounting global fury at Israel’s assault on Gaza, shifting global views on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the conflict in Sudan, and the challenges of Syria’s new government in its dealings with the UN. Finally, they consider the future of UN peacekeeping and whether the organisation can endure as much of the post-1945 multilateral order unravels.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For More, check out our latest briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2025-2026, our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2025 and our Multilateral Diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Murithi Mutiga, Africa Program Director at Crisis Group, sheds light on the complex dynamics of African diplomacy. He discusses the recently brokering of peace between DR Congo and Rwanda and how U.S. mediation under Trump has shifted perceptions. The conversation dives into the ongoing civil war in Sudan and the fragile peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Mutiga also explores the rise of anti-imperialist sentiments among Africa's youth, reflecting on how these evolving geopolitical tensions shape the continent's future.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna about the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what it means for the region.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined once more by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna to discuss the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what might follow. Richard first talks with Ali about the extent of damage U.S. strikes may have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and incentives for Washington and Tehran to reengage diplomatically. Next, Richard and Yasmine examine how the conflict has affected relations between Gulf Arab capitals and Tehran, and how Gulf states are adapting to a rapidly shifting region. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to assess how Israel’s leadership views the outcome of the war and whether it can translate military into political gains. Finally, Richard talks to Michael about what’s next for American policy in the Middle East.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk to discuss the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. They assess what is known about the damage at the nuclear sites and how far the attacks might have set back Iran’s nuclear program. They unpack why diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation have broken down and how Gulf Arab capitals view the situation. They also talk through Iran’s options to respond and whether there’s still a path back to diplomacy.For more, check out our latest Hold Your Fire! episode, “Will he? Won’t he? The Trump Iran Show”, and our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, guests include Ali Vaez, Crisis Group's Iran director, shedding light on the impact of Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities. Mairav Zonszein, Israel expert, reveals the prevailing sentiments among Israelis and Netanyahu's goals. Yasmine Farouk offers insights into Gulf states' views on the escalating conflict. Michael Hanna highlights Trump's shifting stance, posing questions about U.S. involvement and the potential for diplomatic resolutions amidst rising tensions. Together, they navigate the intricate landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Comfort Ero, President and CEO of Crisis Group, recently visited Mali, sharing insights on the diverging political paths of Sahelian countries. Jean-Hervé Jezequel, the Sahel director, highlights the military regimes' sovereignty claims and the growing public frustration linked to stagnating economic and security conditions. They delve into the jihadist coalition JNIM, discussing its increased attacks and the challenges of potential peace talks as military leaders prioritize operations. A complex analysis of foreign relations within the shifting dynamics of the region rounds out the conversation.

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, about Israel’s strikes on Iran, which badly damaged nuclear and military sites and killed senior military officials. They discuss the scale of the attacks and their aims, focusing on whether they were primarily about setting back Iran’s nuclear program or weakening its regime. They also talk through how Iran might respond and what further escalation would look like. They explore how the crisis may affect nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran and what options the Trump administration and Middle East actors may have to prevent the situation from spiralling further out of control.For more, check out our Iran country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Ivan Briscoe about the Trump administration’s Latin America policy, responses from the region and the future of Washington’s influence.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director Renata Segura and Senior Policy Director Ivan Briscoe to look at how the Trump administration is recalibrating U.S. policy toward Latin America. They examine ideological divisions within Trump’s team between officials promoting a confrontational stance toward states like Venezuela and more pragmatic, transactional elements focused on curbing migration and drug flows. They also explore Washington’s approaches to regional hotspots, including Haiti, and assess how Latin American leaders are adjusting their strategies in reaction to shifting U.S. policies. Finally, they discuss the future of U.S. influence in a region where China is increasingly viewed as an important partner.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. For more, check out our Latin America & Caribbean program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.In this episode, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.