
Carnegie Connects The Trump Administration and Venezuela: What Now?
Jan 8, 2026
Phil Gunson, a Senior Analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group, Francisco Monaldi, a Latin American energy expert, and Cindy Arnson, a political economy specialist, dive into the tumultuous aftermath of the Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela. They explore the political implications of Maduro's removal, the fractured Venezuelan economy, and the role of Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader. The guests also discuss Cuba's dependency on Venezuelan oil, the complexities of U.S. engagement, and the obstacles to achieving a stable governance transition.
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Military Win, Political Uncertainty
- The U.S. operation to seize Nicolás Maduro combined tactical brilliance with deep strategic uncertainty about post-capture governance.
- Aaron David Miller and guests stress the gap between military success and the political, institutional capacity to 'run' Venezuela.
Three Shocks After The Operation
- Phil Gunson describes shocks: Maduro's removal, Trump's sidelining of María Corina Machado, and claims the U.S. will 'run' Venezuela.
- He warns the operation exposed U.S. willingness to act but left profound questions about day-to-day governance.
Increased Street Repression
- Phil reports streets were eerily quiet initially, then security presence intensified with colectivos and masked counterintelligence patrols.
- He highlights an emergency decree enabling stop-and-search and detentions targeting suspected sympathizers.



