Carnegie Connects

As President Donald Trump prepares for his upcoming trip to South Korea to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be on the agenda. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung first suggested the meeting during his recent trip to Washington. Trump and Kim seem open to the possibility, with one major caveat: Kim has stated publicly that discussions of denuclearization are off the table. Whether or not that meeting occurs, North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and deepening relationships with Russia and China are a persistent challenge for Washington.How should the second Trump administration alter, or maintain, its approach to North Korea?  Is Washington reading Kim and the internal politics of Pyongyang correctly? And what role should China and South Korea play in U.S. strategy?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Jean H. Lee, the presidential chair of the East-West Center, and Joel S. Wit, a distinguished fellow in Asian and Security Studies at the Stimson Center, on these and other issues. 

As we enter the third year of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Trump administration has offered up a plan to end the war in Gaza. But can it be implemented? The goals of the Netanyahu government and Hamas seem all but irreconcilable. Meanwhile, the hostages and the Palestinian civilian population of Gaza continue to endure horrific conditions. How does the war end? What does the future hold for the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict and prospects for a lasting solution? And what role is there for the Trump Administration and key Arab states moving forward?  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research Center’s Khalil Shikaki and the Middle East Institute’s Natan Sachs to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects. 

Nearly two years into the Israel-Hamas war, the two-state solution is back in the news with the United Nations General Assembly voting in support. Unlike in years past, October 7 and the drawn-out conflict in Gaza has led to a wider and much more polarized conversation.  European nations, Arab states, and much of the international community are advocating for Palestinian statehood, while the Trump administration and Israel continue to push back.  Was the two-state solution ever a serious possibility? What roles did the United States, Palestinian Liberation Organization, Israel, and key Arab states play? And if not two states, what solution if any, is possible?  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Robert Malley, former Middle East adviser in three presidential administrations and co-author of the new book Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine, to discuss these and other issues.

In a world defined by seemingly intractable conflicts, great power competition, and rising challenges posed by climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic uncertainty, the United States often seems like a modern-day Gulliver tied up and constrained by powers large and small and at times by its own politics and illusions.   How does the United States advance its national interests in the face of these challenges, particularly against the backdrop of bitter divisions and polarization at home?   Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with William J. Burns, former director of the CIA and former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as he looks back on decades of national security challenges and ahead to what defines effective U.S. leadership in such a complex and fast-paced world. 

Presidential summits can be useful in opening serious negotiations or closing them with an agreement. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming summit in Alaska is the latest attempt by the United States to advance peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine—now three and a half years into the war. The outcome of the summit may foreshadow the direction of future negotiations and, ultimately, whether a durable solution is possible.  What is the Trump administration’sstrategy for the summit? What can realistically be achieved in this dialogue between Trump and Putin, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy excluded? And how will Russia, Ukraine, and the United States proceed in its wake?  Join Aaron David Miller in conversation with Andrew S. Weiss and Eric Ciaramella, two of Carnegie’s foremost Russia and Ukraine analysts, to unpack the summit’s outcomes, what comes next for the war, and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.  

The United States took unprecedented action, striking three nuclear sites on June 22, following an ongoing campaign of Israeli attacks on Iranian leadership, nuclear, and energy targets. Iran responded to Israel with a barrage of ballistic missile strikes, but following the latest U.S. bombing, Tehran attacked with a reportedly well-telegraphed symbolic strike on American assets in Qatar.  For now, it seems the dangerous escalatory cycle has been diffused, but how long will this uneasy status quo endure without a negotiated set of arrangements that satisfies all three parties in this explosive triangle?  Are Israeli and U.S. interests aligned? What kind of concessions is Iran prepared to make on their nuclear program? Is a diplomatic solution possible and, if not, what kind of conflict lies ahead? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Yadlin, president and founder of MIND and former head of IDF Intelligence, and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.  

A tenuous U.S. brokered cease-fire seems to be holding. But the challenge of converting it into a more enduring cessation of hostilities, let alone a political agreement to address the Iranian nuclear program, remain formidable.Is Iran interested in a deal on the nuclear issue in the aftermath of Israeli and U.S. strikes? What are the United States’ objectives in the period ahead and do they align with Israel’s? And what should the American response be if Iran tries to reconstitute its nuclear assets?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages with General David Petraeus and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour in conversation on the complexities of this explosive triangle on the next Carnegie Connects.

Israel’s surprise attacks last week against Iranian leadership targets, nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s retaliation with ballistic missiles, have pushed the Israeli-Iranian conflict into unknown territory. Unlike the confrontations of April and October of 2024, this new phase is deadlier and shows no signs of abating. What are Israel’s and Iran’s objectives? Can Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program? What are the prospects for U.S. military intervention? And if there is a diplomatic off ramp, how would it defuse the current crisis and produce longer term stability?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Sima Shine, of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, and Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, in conversation on the current Israeli-Iranian conflict on the next Carnegie Connects.

Corruption, illicit foreign bribery schemes, and family members trading on presidential reputations for self-enrichment have surrounded the American political system for years. But the Trump presidency has embarked on an unprecedented scale of self-dealing out in the open, muddying the line between the national interest and those of the Trump family’s business enterprises. At the same time, the administration has hollowed out internal watchdogs, curbed ethics requirements, and undermined America’s credibility in the war against illicit finance. As Peter Baker noted in the New York Times, the "death or dearth of outrage," over this tsunami of self-dealing may well reflect how the Trump Administration has reshaped the standards of what's acceptable in Washington. Where are the current constraints against presidential self-dealing? Why have the public and political elites not generated the kind of reaction that might have been seen in years past?  Are there historic parallels and ways to course correct? What impact do these actions have on U.S. standing globally? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Norm Eisen, founder of Democracy Defenders Action, on the next Carnegie Connects.  

While the Trump administration was eager to jettison the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal in its first term, it now seems serious about negotiating another agreement in its second. And Iran, though wary of that seriousness and fearful of U.S. military action, appears willing to give negotiations a chance.   What are the prospects for success and the appetite for meaningful engagement with Iran? How would an agreement differ from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal? And if diplomacy fails, is American and Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear sites inevitable?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Suzanne Maloney, the vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, and Vali Nasr, the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.