The Current Is regime change in Venezuela imminent?
Dec 8, 2025
Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, shares insights from Caracas on the mounting pressures in Venezuela. He discusses U.S. military threats and their implications for daily life in crisis-ridden Venezuela. Gunson explains how Venezuelans perceive these threats as intimidation tactics against Maduro, whose regime he assesses as resilient yet conflicted. He warns of the risks of forced regime change, including the potential for power vacuums and prolonged conflict, while shedding light on the complexities of Venezuela's drug trade and the role of oil.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Daily Life Is Survival First
- Venezuelans live day-to-day focused on survival amid a decade-long humanitarian emergency.
- About 8 million have fled from a population around 30 million, worsening domestic strain.
Imminent Strike Talk Becomes Normal
- Venezuelans have normalized repeated threats of U.S. land strikes and rumors of imminence.
- People interpret U.S. actions largely as psychological pressure to split the military or force Maduro out.
Maduro Sees Threats As Bluff
- Maduro and his inner circle view U.S. threats largely as a bluff and prefer staying in power despite risks.
- They judge they are safer inside Venezuela than facing exile or prosecution abroad.