While studying history back in the 1990s, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss noticed something: there seemed to be a pattern to history that repeated itself again and again. Howe and Strauss developed a theory that history moves in 80-100-year cycles divided into four 20-25-year "turnings": the High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.Neil Howe argues that we are currently living through a Fourth Turning, and today on the show, we unpack what that means. Neil is a historian, demographer, and economist, and his latest book is The Fourth Turning Is Here. The crisis of the Fourth Turning isn't a historical event — it's a generation-long era that sometimes seems to be getting better, sometimes seems to be getting worse, and moves through several phases before reaching a climax and resolution. Neil explains what these phases look like, which ones we've already been through and which are still to come, and when he thinks our Fourth Turning will end and the cycle of history will start over. In the second part of our conversation, Neil talks about what cultural changes he thinks we'll experience as the Fourth Turning progresses, including how he thinks gender roles will shift. We also discuss what happens if the crisis ends in disaster, and the most important thing to do to successfully navigate a Fourth Turning.Resources Related to the PodcastAoM article: The Generations of Men — How the Cycles of History Shape Your Values and Your FutureNeil's last appearance on the show: Episode #256Connect With Neil HoweNeil on TwitterNeil on LinkedIn

In Episode 321 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with bestselling author, renowned historian, economist, and theorist of generational change, Neil Howe. Twenty-five years ago, Neil and his late co-author William Strauss put forward a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back over the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly 80 to 100 years, with each composed of four eras—or “turnings”—that always arrive in the same order and each last about 25 years. The last of these eras is always the most perilous. It’s a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. The authors called it the Fourth Turning, and Neil joins us today to explain why he thinks that the fourth turning has finally arrived, what it means for those of us living during this period, and how his theory of generational change can help us navigate it with courage, competency, and a new-found sense of resiliency that may seem unimaginable to us today. Howe and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation laying the foundation for his theory, discussing the four different seasons of the saecula, as well as the four different generations that propel it forward. They spend the second hour applying that framework to the Fourth Turning itself, discussing what it would take to consolidate our society, what an existential threat to our nation’s survival will look and feel like, and what we can do to prepare ourselves for this great national challenge that will draw all other problems into it and require the extraordinary mobilization of most Americans. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/24/2023

Neil Howe discusses the Fourth Turning and generational cycles, detailing how historical patterns shape societal changes and political polarization. The conversation delves into trust in institutions, tribal divisions in America, and the dynamics of societal upheaval. They also explore the impact of generational patterns on democracy, community dynamics, self-sufficiency, and investing behaviors during times of crisis.

Neil Howe, author, historian, economist, and consultant who is best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 93.  Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. Links:  Twitter: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734 0:00 Intro 1:21 Generational Theory  5:00 Generations arrive in patterns  8:00 These periods of crisis come once in a lifetime 11:20 Writing “The Fourth Turning” in 1997  13:00 Fourth Turning catalysts  15:30 Sales of “The Fourth Turning” book accelerated since pandemic  16:50 The role of Millennials in the Fourth Turning  20:00 Younger people losing faith in democracy  21:18 Generational archetypes  27:43 Millennials as the “Hero”  33:40 Fourth Turning will likely end in the early 2030s  39:00 An internal or external conflict?  44:00 Macroeconomic picture and the Fourth Turning  49:00 Relationships  50:28 What keeps Neil up at night?  53:00 Optimistic about the future 

Neil Howe, author of The Fourth Turning, discusses the current generational cycle in America and the origins of a fourth turning. They explore economic and societal cycles throughout history, the rebuilding of institutions, and the role of conflict in fostering teamwork and societal progress. Also mentioned is the upcoming Permissionless Conference in Austin, Texas, and the importance of attending for those interested in the crypto space. Overall, an insightful and thought-provoking discussion.

There’s no denying that we are part of a significant inflection point in human history. We are truly living in interesting times...  In this episode, Tony speaks with historian and demographer Neil Howe about the fascinating patterns of human history, as he and co-author William Strauss explained more than two decades ago in Generations (1991) and The Fourth Turning (1997).  If you’re feeling stressed, overwhelmed, or uncertain about all that’s happening in the world, this episode will give you a much-needed shift in perspective. You will understand how cycles of crisis catalyze massive economic, cultural, political, and institutional disruption – and how as a society, we solve problems we never thought we could before.  No storm lasts forever, and this too shall pass. Listen to this episode for Neil’s predictions on how much longer this crisis period will last and what we can look forward to in our beautiful, shared future.  To watch the interview, which took place in 2022 in front of a small audience, go here: https://youtu.be/lX1Csk2vn5A SHOW NOTES  [0:05] Tony was working with President Bill Clinton when he was first told about the book Generations  [2:46] The stages of our lives: childhood, young adult, mid-life, elder  [6:31] The seasons of history and how they overlap with generations  [8:15] Tony welcomes Neil Howe, co-author of Generations, and The Fourth Turning  [10:25] Generations are distinct and always have been  [10:45] How old you are during a big event shapes your experience of it  [12:50] Knife-age division vs. zones of transition (EX. X-ennials)  [13:45] History shapes generations, but (later on) generations shape history   [16:09] The cyclical nature of crises and how they spur “a total remake”  [18:29] Institutions we rely on today were created post-WWII  [20:01] Why do we wait until there is a crisis to solve problems?  [22:10] 1780s economic depression: We created the Constitution in our darkest hour   [24:18] What comes next: The High, collective, feeling more than the sum of our parts  [26:38] The Awakening releases the individual   [27:57] Gen X was left alone and raised themselves = pragmatism & cynicism  [30:08] Silent Generation had to adjust themselves to meet others’ expectations  [31:08] We are in a time of growing tribalism in America  *Show notes continue on website page

Neil Howe discusses historical cycles and saeculi, focusing on generational dynamics and realigning elections. The conversation delves into counterculture movements, economic strategies, and political affiliations, highlighting the impact of historical events on societal cycles and governmental interventions.

Author Neil Howe discusses the 'Fourth Turning' theory and its impact on societal change, exploring generational cycles in American history, generation archetypes, LGBTQ influence, wealth transfer, state succession, tribalism, and the evolution of faith.

Marc Faber, a prominent economist known for his expertise on inflation, and Neil Howe, a demographer famous for his generational theories, explore pressing economic challenges. They discuss how inflation negatively impacts society and the risk of economic collapse due to rampant money printing. The guests dissect the uneven recovery post-pandemic, especially in China, and analyze rising economic inequality. They also touch on shifting real estate trends and emphasize the urgency for economic reforms to address societal and financial instability.

Neil Howe, an expert on generational theory and co-author of 'The Fourth Turning,' discusses mania bubbles in 3rd turnings, the impact of war in 4th turnings, mentally healthy generations from large-scale disasters like WWII, and the use of inflation as a policy tool during 4th turnings.