Neil Howe, a renowned demographer and historian, dives into the cyclical patterns of societal change with a focus on America’s current chaotic Fourth Turning. He discusses the rise of nationalism and its implications for international relations, alongside the challenges of governance in a polarized political climate. Howe emphasizes the potential for transformative change stemming from disruption, examining youth-led movements and the historical context of leadership during crises. Tune in for insights on investment strategies amid economic uncertainty and the emerging risks from geopolitical tensions.
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insights INSIGHT
Global Scale of Fourth Turning
Fourth Turning upheaval is a global phenomenon affecting many countries simultaneously.
The decline of globalization has been accelerating since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
insights INSIGHT
Collectivism in Fourth Turnings Rises
Fourth Turnings involve a shift from individualism to greater top-down authority and civic institutions.
Rising generations tend to believe the system must save them, increasing demand for government action.
insights INSIGHT
Policy Contradictions Challenge Economy
Trump's policies contain contradictions, such as promoting no trade deficit while encouraging foreign investment.
Reducing trade flows conflicts with sustaining capital inflows needed to finance deficits and investment.
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This book is a mix of memoir and business advice, detailing Trump's professional and personal worldview. It outlines his approach to deal-making, including his eleven key elements for success, such as 'Think Big,' 'Maximize Your Options,' and 'Have Fun.' The book offers insights into Trump's business strategies, his interactions with various figures, and his approach to negotiating deals. It also provides a glimpse into his personal life and how he runs his organization[1][3][5].
The Fourth Turning
What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
Neil Howe
William Strauss
The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future based on a provocative theory of American history. The authors identify a distinct pattern where modern history moves in cycles, each lasting about the length of a long human life, composed of four twenty-year eras—or 'turnings'—that comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. The book offers bold predictions about how America’s past will predict what comes next, particularly focusing on the roles of Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials during times of upheaval.
The Wealth of Nations
Adam Smith
Published in 1776, 'The Wealth of Nations' is Adam Smith's magnum opus that laid the groundwork for modern economics. The book critiques mercantilist economic theories and introduces the concept of the 'invisible hand,' which describes how individual self-interest leads to societal benefit. It emphasizes the division of labor, the accumulation of capital, and the importance of free markets. Smith argues that a nation's wealth is not measured by its gold and silver reserves but by the stream of goods and services it produces. The book also outlines the core functions of government, such as maintaining defense, enforcing civil law, and promoting education, while advocating for limited government intervention in market activities.
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart 
