#183 Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning, Tribalization of America, And The Attempted Assassination of Former President Trump

Neil Howe, an author, historian, demographer, economist, and consultant best known for his work on social generations and generational trends, joins Julia La Roche on episode 183 to discuss the Fourth Turning. Julia and Neil recorded this episode on Friday, July 12. After the attempted assassination of former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, Neil and Julia spoke again for about 20 minutes on Sunday afternoon, which airs at the beginning. 

Along with the late William Strauss, Howe is credited with creating the concept of generational theory and popularizing terms such as "Millennial Generation." Howe has written several books on generational trends, including "The Fourth Turning" and "Generations." His work focuses on understanding the cyclical patterns of history and how different generations shape society. A quarter of a century ago, Howe and Strauss introduced an innovative interpretation of American history. They identified a recurring pattern: modern history proceeds in cycles, roughly 80 to 100 years long, mirroring a human lifespan. Each cycle encompasses four distinct eras, or "turnings," each lasting about 25 years and always following the same sequence. The fourth and final turning, they found, was invariably the most tumultuous and transformative, on par with events like the New Deal, World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. 

In his newest book, "The Fourth Turning Is Here," Howe applies his understanding of historical cycles to anticipate the resolution of current civic unrest and project the potential future state of America over the next decade. According to Howe, we will reach a climax by the early 2030s. While this climax poses substantial risks, it also carries the potential for a new era of prosperity in America. The outcome of this critical juncture, he argues, will be determined by every living generation's involvement. 

Links:  

Twitter/x: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration 

The Fourth Turning Is Here: https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734

Timestamps: 

0:00 Intro and welcome Neil Howe

1:09 Neil Howe reaction to assassination attempt on former President Trump

4:30 We’re in an era where people are more tolerant of violence 

6:20 How would we react? 

9:31 Breakdown of trust — where are people finding trust? 

11:11 A path forward? 

16:20 Parting thoughts — be hopeful about the future and long-term destination

19:10 Neil Howe July 12 interview intro 

20:30 Generational theory, the four turnings 

25:50 Crises that shape generations 

27:55 Great Awakenings 

33:40 Where are we in the Fourth Turning? The election? Tribalization of America 

36:20 “I worry about November 5th…” 

41:23 Political risk-taking

44:40 Four Turnings

48:30 Crisis period