The Art of Manliness

The Fourth Turning — How History's Crisis Period Could Unfold

Jul 19, 2023

Neil Howe, a historian and demographer known for his work on generational cycles, discusses the concept of the Fourth Turning—a crisis period in a recurring 80-100 year cycle. He explains how we are currently in this phase, characterized by societal upheaval and potential renewal. The conversation covers anticipated cultural shifts, including evolving gender roles and community values. Howe also reflects on historical crises and their role in reshaping society, predicting a climactic moment around 2030 that could redefine governance and personal relationships.

50:42

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Neil Howe

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Quick takeaways

History moves in 80-100 year cycles divided into four turnings, and we are currently living through a fourth turning.

The phases of a fourth turning include precursor event, catalyst event, regeneracy, consolidation, and climax and resolution.

During a fourth turning, society experiences cultural changes driven by the need to navigate and reshape society during times of crisis.

Deep dives

The Theory of History Repeating Itself

Neil Howe and William Strauss developed a theory that history moves in 80 to 100 year cycles divided into four 20 to 25 year turnings. They argue that we are currently living through a fourth turning, which is a generation-long era that goes through several phases before reaching a climax and resolution. This theory suggests that history repeats itself, and we can expect certain patterns and changes in society during each turning.

Progress and change occur when times are tough

00:53

The Four Phases of Crisis and Regeneracy in History

02:15

The Four Turnings and Generational Archetypes in a Historical Cycle

01:50

Indicators Pointing Towards Another Recession. Anti democracy

01:12

Intro

5min

The Fourth Turning: Cycles of Crisis and Renewal

19min

Climactic Moments in Historical Crisis and Future Predictions

2min

Societal Transformation and the Quest for Community

4min

Generational Shifts: Community and Individualism

7min

Evolving Dynamics in Relationships

12min

Navigating Societal Cycles and the Importance of Community

5min

While studying history back in the 1990s, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss noticed something: there seemed to be a pattern to history that repeated itself again and again. Howe and Strauss developed a theory that history moves in 80-100-year cycles divided into four 20-25-year "turnings": the High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.

Neil Howe argues that we are currently living through a Fourth Turning, and today on the show, we unpack what that means. Neil is a historian, demographer, and economist, and his latest book is The Fourth Turning Is Here. The crisis of the Fourth Turning isn't a historical event — it's a generation-long era that sometimes seems to be getting better, sometimes seems to be getting worse, and moves through several phases before reaching a climax and resolution. Neil explains what these phases look like, which ones we've already been through and which are still to come, and when he thinks our Fourth Turning will end and the cycle of history will start over. In the second part of our conversation, Neil talks about what cultural changes he thinks we'll experience as the Fourth Turning progresses, including how he thinks gender roles will shift. We also discuss what happens if the crisis ends in disaster, and the most important thing to do to successfully navigate a Fourth Turning.

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Connect With Neil Howe

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The Art of Manliness

The Fourth Turning — How History's Crisis Period Could Unfold

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

The Theory of History Repeating Itself

Phases of a Fourth Turning

The Current Fourth Turning

Gender Roles and Cultural Changes

Navigating the Fourth Turning and Potential Outcomes

Progress and change occur when times are tough

The Four Phases of Crisis and Regeneracy in History

The Four Turnings and Generational Archetypes in a Historical Cycle

Indicators Pointing Towards Another Recession. Anti democracy

Resources Related to the Podcast

Connect With Neil Howe

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts