Neil Howe, a historian and demographer known for his work on generational cycles, discusses the concept of the Fourth Turning—a crisis period in a recurring 80-100 year cycle. He explains how we are currently in this phase, characterized by societal upheaval and potential renewal. The conversation covers anticipated cultural shifts, including evolving gender roles and community values. Howe also reflects on historical crises and their role in reshaping society, predicting a climactic moment around 2030 that could redefine governance and personal relationships.
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insights INSIGHT
Cyclical History
History moves in 80-100 year cycles called "saecula",
each with four 20-25 year "turnings": High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.
insights INSIGHT
Phases of a Fourth Turning
Fourth turnings are characterized by distinct phases.
They include a precursor, catalyst, regeneracy, climax, and resolution.
question_answer ANECDOTE
World War I Precursor
World War I served as the precursor to the Great Depression/WWII crisis.
It temporarily galvanized society but was later viewed negatively.
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In 'The Fourth Turning Is Here,' Neil Howe expands on his earlier theory of historical cycles, which posits that modern history moves in cycles lasting roughly 80 to 100 years, each cycle composed of four eras or 'turnings.' The current era, the fourth turning, is characterized by polarization, civil conflict, and global tensions, but also holds the promise of a new golden age for America. The book delves into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of the current crisis and explores how different generations will be affected by the upcoming political, social, and economic challenges. It also provides insights on how the country, communities, and families can prepare to meet these challenges[2][4][5].
While studying history back in the 1990s, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss noticed something: there seemed to be a pattern to history that repeated itself again and again. Howe and Strauss developed a theory that history moves in 80-100-year cycles divided into four 20-25-year "turnings": the High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.
Neil Howe argues that we are currently living through a Fourth Turning, and today on the show, we unpack what that means. Neil is a historian, demographer, and economist, and his latest book is The Fourth Turning Is Here. The crisis of the Fourth Turning isn't a historical event — it's a generation-long era that sometimes seems to be getting better, sometimes seems to be getting worse, and moves through several phases before reaching a climax and resolution. Neil explains what these phases look like, which ones we've already been through and which are still to come, and when he thinks our Fourth Turning will end and the cycle of history will start over. In the second part of our conversation, Neil talks about what cultural changes he thinks we'll experience as the Fourth Turning progresses, including how he thinks gender roles will shift. We also discuss what happens if the crisis ends in disaster, and the most important thing to do to successfully navigate a Fourth Turning.
The Art of Manliness 
