In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities[3][4][5].
The Four Steps to the Epiphany by Steve Blank is a comprehensive guide for entrepreneurs, focusing on the customer development process rather than the traditional product development model. The book highlights the importance of understanding the market environment and customer needs before developing a product. It outlines four key steps: customer discovery, customer validation, customer creation, and company building. Blank argues that startups must learn and adapt continuously, unlike large companies which have established customer bases and market knowledge. The book provides insights from failed startups to illustrate the critical aspects of achieving and sustaining success in the entrepreneurial journey.
Getting Real outlines the philosophy and practices of 37signals, emphasizing simplicity, speed, and efficiency in software development. The book is packed with insights on keeping things simple, avoiding unnecessary complexity, and focusing on core problems. It covers topics such as self-funding, flexible scope, lean operations, and the importance of real, running software. The book is not a technical manual but a collection of big-picture ideas applicable to various aspects of web application development and beyond.
Andres Glusman, experimentation expert and former Meetup product leader, unpacks why 89% of experiments fail - and why that’s a good thing. From redesign pitfalls to balancing data with intuition, he shares hard-earned lessons on turning failure into explosive growth.
It’s not about running more tests, but smarter ones.
Timestamps & Segments
00:01:02 – 00:10:00
The Experimentation Conundrum
Andres breaks down why most experiments fail, the "VC mindset" for testing, and why a 65% loss rate is better than industry standards.
00:10:05 – 00:20:00
Low Traffic, Big Swings
Strategies for companies with limited traffic: why timid tweaks waste time and how to bundle changes for measurable impact.
00:20:05 – 00:30:00
Redesigns: When to Rip the Band-Aid
Why most redesigns backfire, how to test without tanking metrics, and the political minefield of shipping "VP-approved" flops.
00:30:05 – 00:40:00
Storing (and Ignoring) Experiment Data
The lifecycle of experiment insights, why social proof is overrated, and how to avoid repeating past mistakes (hint: spreadsheets).
00:40:05 – 00:49:00
Hot Takes & Must-Reads
Andres’ controversial read on stale A/B testing dogma + book recs to overhaul your product playbook.
Hot Takes
🔥 “89% failure rate? You’re doing it right.” – Andres
🔥 “If stats aren’t significant after 4 months, ship it anyway—your samples are probably garbage.” – Leah
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PRODUCTEA with Leah, Growth & Senior Leadership 
