The economy should be understood as a non-equilibrium system with booms and busts, challenging the prevailing equilibrium-based approach of economics.
Increasing returns, driven by positive feedback, play a crucial role in shaping dynamic economies and can lead to the emergence of dominant solutions or companies.
Deep dives
Brian Arthur's Journey to Complexity Science
Brian Arthur's interest in complexity science was sparked by his dissatisfaction with the equilibrium-based approach of economics. He saw that real-world systems, like the economy, exhibited non-equilibrium behavior with booms and busts. This motivated him to study the economy as a non-equilibrium system. Despite initial resistance from the economics community, he delved into the concept of increasing returns, which examines how positive feedback impacts the economy. Brian's work challenged the prevailing belief that economies were static and in equilibrium. Instead, he argued that systems could self-organize and exhibit dynamic behavior due to increasing returns.
The Relevance of Increasing Returns
Brian Arthur's research on increasing returns presented a paradigm shift in economics. While classical economics focused on diminishing returns and equilibrium, Brian highlighted the role of positive feedback and increasing returns. By studying systems dynamically and allowing for random events and slight advantages, he demonstrated how increasing returns could lead to the emergence of dominant solutions or companies. This understanding became especially relevant in the tech sector, where companies like Facebook and Google gained a competitive edge, further solidifying their dominance. Brian's work challenged the notion of a singular optimal solution in economics and emphasized the importance of analyzing systems as dynamic and ever-changing.
Acceptance and Impact of Brian Arthur's Ideas
Brian Arthur's groundbreaking ideas initially faced resistance from the economics community, as they challenged prevailing ideologies and principles. However, over time, his work gained recognition and acceptance. Physicists, biologists, and the Santa Fe Institute provided significant support and validation for his research. Brian's concepts of increasing returns and positive feedback have been widely accepted as important factors in understanding complex systems. These ideas have had a profound impact, not only in economics but in various fields, and have provided a foundation for analyzing the dynamics of technological advancements, market behaviors, and more.
Mitchell Waldrop's 'Complexity' brought complexity science into the limelight with an account of the early days of the Santa Fe Institute. One of the people who appear in this book is W. Brian Arthur, the engineer turned economist who found economics unsatisfactory — because it treated the economy purely as a system in equilibrium when he knew it very obviously wasn't.
In this episode, you'll hear from W. Brian Arthur, External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute, and Researcher at Palo Alto Research Center, as he explains his journey to understanding the economy as a non-equilibrium system, and his work on increasing returns. But what are increasing returns? Well in complexity terms, it's how positive feedback affects the economy.