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The Original Invisible Gorilla Example
- In the invisible gorilla video, viewers counting passes often miss a person in a gorilla suit walking through.
- More than half of participants fail to notice that highly salient event when focused on another task.
Availability Bias Skews Cause Inference
- We focus on vivid, available examples and ignore missing cases when evaluating causes of success.
- That availability bias makes famous dropouts seem typical even when most unicorn founders have degrees.
Ask What Information You're Missing
- Don't accept someone's causal story for success as gospel; ask what you're missing.
- Seek base rates and compare how often claimed factors succeed versus alternatives.