The Local Maximum with Max Sklar Ep. 267 - Bernoulli's Fallacy with Aubrey Clayton
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Feb 28, 2023 AI Snips
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Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Bernoulli's Fallacy involves focusing solely on the probability of data given a hypothesis, neglecting prior knowledge.
- This ignores crucial context and can lead to false conclusions, as seen in the Prosecutor's Fallacy.
Sally Clark Case
- Sally Clark was convicted of murdering her two children after a flawed statistical argument.
- The prosecution wrongly focused on the low probability of two infant deaths, ignoring prior probabilities.
Lottery Ticket Example
- If someone wins the lottery, the probability of them having bought a ticket is small, yet it's the only explanation.
- This highlights how focusing solely on likelihoods can be misleading without considering alternative hypotheses.