Ep. 267 - Bernoulli's Fallacy with Aubrey Clayton
The Local Maximum with Max Sklar
00:00
The Probability of Winning the Lottery
The probability of winning the lottery given that you bought a ticket is small. The prob, vanishingly small, the probability of won the lottery if you did not buy a ticket is zero. That's an example where there can be a huge disconnect between these kinds of sampling probabilities of the data versus the inferential probabilities going the other direction.
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