Quantifying the American Mind: George Gallup, and the Promise of Political Polling

Published in 1939, 'The Grapes of Wrath' is a powerful and poignant novel by John Steinbeck. It tells the story of the Joad family, Oklahoma tenant farmers who are forced to leave their home after the devastating effects of the Dust Bowl and the Great Depression. The novel follows their arduous journey along Route 66 to California, where they face numerous hardships, including poverty, exploitation, and the loss of family members. The book explores themes of family, survival, and the struggle for human dignity in the face of overwhelming adversity. It also delves into the broader social and economic issues of the time, highlighting the conflict between the powerful and the powerless. Steinbeck's work is known for its vivid portrayal of the human condition and its impact on American literature and society.

In 'Public Opinion', Walter Lippmann explores the nature of public opinion, how it is formed, and its influence on democratic processes. Published in 1922, the book critiques the ideal of direct democracy and argues that the public's perceptions are often shaped by incomplete and inaccurate information. Lippmann discusses the role of media, stereotypes, and other factors in shaping public opinion, highlighting the challenges in achieving informed and rational public discourse.

This book provides a detailed analysis of American public opinion over fifty years, covering various domestic and foreign policy issues. The authors, Benjamin I. Page and Robert Y. Shapiro, draw on extensive public opinion data to show that collective public opinion is remarkably coherent, reflecting a stable system of values shared by most Americans. The book also examines how opinions vary by age, gender, race, and region, and how they respond to new events and information from the mass media. While acknowledging cases of manipulation, the authors establish the soundness and value of collective political opinion.

W. Joseph Campbell's "Lost in Gallup" delves into the history of polling failures in US presidential elections. The book uses case studies to illustrate how pollsters have misjudged election outcomes, highlighting the limitations and biases inherent in polling methodologies. Campbell analyzes the impact of these failures on the political landscape and public perception of polling accuracy. He explores the evolution of polling techniques and the challenges of accurately predicting election results. The book serves as a cautionary tale about the limitations of relying solely on polls for understanding public opinion.

In 'The American Commonwealth', James Bryce provides a detailed examination of American political institutions, including the national and state governments, the party system, and social institutions. First published in 1888, this work remains a classic in understanding American politics and society. It offers insights into the functioning of American democracy during that era, drawing from Bryce's observations and analyses.