The Daily: Checking In on Ad Spend—What’s Been Driving Growth This Year, Why It Might Be About to Slow Down, and a Preview of 2025 | Oct 14, 2024
Oct 14, 2024
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Ross Benes, a Senior Analyst at eMarketer specializing in digital advertising and media, dives into the evolving landscape of digital advertising. He discusses the impressive 12% growth in U.S. ad spending, driven by non-cyclical ads and political campaigns. The conversation highlights significant trends such as retail media's rise, the impact of economic conditions on consumer sentiment, and anticipates a shift in ad spending towards digital platforms while TV budgets may contract. It's a lively analysis of where advertising is headed!
The growth of the US ad market, primarily driven by digital sectors like video and retail media, indicates a significant shift away from traditional advertising methods.
Predictions for 2025 suggest a decline in traditional TV ad spending, while overall ad budgets are expected to grow through digital platform dominance.
Deep dives
US Ad Market Performance and Trends
The US ad market has shown consistent growth, with a reported 12% increase in spending year-over-year as of August. This growth is attributed to non-cyclical spending rather than dependence on major events like the Olympics. Media agency Magna has raised its forecast for ad spending growth to 11.4%, reflecting improved market conditions, yet concerns remain about a potential slowdown towards the end of the year. Analysts predict that while growth will continue, it may be influenced by factors such as the upcoming holiday season and changes in budget allocations due to political ad spending.
Shifts in Advertising Strategies
Digital advertising sectors, particularly video and retail media, have emerged as significant growth drivers. Retail media, while still developing, shows potential for continued expansion, especially with major players like Walmart strategically transitioning into digital spaces. Video advertising has gained importance, projected to account for nearly 40% of ad budgets in the near future due to its effectiveness. As advertising strategies adapt, the ongoing growth of digital media indicates a shift away from traditional formats like television.
Forecast for Future Ad Spending
Looking ahead to 2025, while overall ad spending is expected to increase significantly in dollar terms, growth rates may decrease due to the absence of major political and sporting events that historically drive ad spending. Predictions suggest that traditional TV will experience a downturn from a negligible growth to a decline, which reflects a broader shift to digital channels. Despite these changes, total ad spending is anticipated to grow by about 7%, buoyed by the success of digital platforms that now dominate advertising budgets. The evolving landscape illustrates a resilience in digital ad spending even amid challenges faced by traditional media.
On today's podcast episode, we discuss whether search, social, connected TV, or retail media has been driving growth the most this year, how much non-cyclical ad growth has been fueling this year's numbers, and what to expect from ad spend in 2025. Tune in to the discussion with host Marcus Johnson and our analyst Ross Benes.
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