"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts
20 snips
Mar 21, 2024 Katja Grace, Cofounder and Lead Researcher at AI Impacts, shares insights from a comprehensive survey involving over 2,700 AI researchers. She discusses the diverse predictions about AI’s future and highlights concerns about safety and interpretability. The conversation reveals a trend of optimism among researchers but also addresses the complexities of forecasting advancements. Katja emphasizes the importance of understanding public skepticism and the need for clear communication around AI capabilities and risks.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Survey Participants
- The survey focused on authors who published at six top AI venues in 2022.
- This selection aimed for a broad range of AI expertise and top researchers.
Defining AI Milestones
- The survey defined High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) as AI's ability to perform all tasks better and cheaper than humans.
- Full Automation of Labor (FAOL) referred to when AI can outperform humans in all occupations.
Timeline Estimation Methods
- Researchers used two methods for estimating timelines: giving years and asking for probability, or vice versa.
- These methods yielded consistently different results, leading to a combined approach.