"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

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Forecasting AI: Insights and Biases

This chapter examines the complexities of gathering and analyzing predictions about future AI advancements. It highlights the impact of question framing on responses from researchers and discusses the aggregation of individual predictions into probability distributions. The conversation underscores the variability and biases in forecasting, revealing a trend of optimism among researchers regarding near-term AI developments.

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