"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

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Navigating AI Predictions: Confidence and Uncertainty

This chapter examines the complexities of predicting AI development milestones, emphasizing the variability of confidence among researchers and the shifting timelines for full automation. It discusses recent survey results revealing a decline in expectations regarding human-level machine intelligence and highlights the challenges of task delegation to AI systems. The conversation underscores the importance of cautious assessment of AI capabilities amidst ongoing advancements and varying forecasting opinions.

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