"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

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Understanding Predictions in AI Development: Asymmetry and Uncertainty

This chapter explores the challenges of forecasting AI advancements, emphasizing the difference between median and mean prediction timelines. It highlights the uncertainties in expectations surrounding AI capabilities and discusses how these insights can aid planning in the AI sector.

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