Superforecasters

Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasters" delves into the world of prediction, exploring the factors that contribute to accurate forecasting.

Tetlock's research challenges the notion that expert opinions are inherently superior, demonstrating that a combination of specific cognitive skills and methods can significantly improve predictive accuracy.

The book highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, updating beliefs based on new evidence, and recognizing the limitations of human judgment.

Tetlock's study of "superforecasters," individuals who consistently outperform experts, reveals valuable insights into the art and science of prediction.

The book offers practical strategies for improving our own forecasting abilities and making better decisions in uncertain environments.