#27470
Mentioned in 2 episodes
Superforecasters
The Art and Science of Prediction
Book •
Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasters" delves into the world of prediction, exploring the factors that contribute to accurate forecasting.
Tetlock's research challenges the notion that expert opinions are inherently superior, demonstrating that a combination of specific cognitive skills and methods can significantly improve predictive accuracy.
The book highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, updating beliefs based on new evidence, and recognizing the limitations of human judgment.
Tetlock's study of "superforecasters," individuals who consistently outperform experts, reveals valuable insights into the art and science of prediction.
The book offers practical strategies for improving our own forecasting abilities and making better decisions in uncertain environments.
Tetlock's research challenges the notion that expert opinions are inherently superior, demonstrating that a combination of specific cognitive skills and methods can significantly improve predictive accuracy.
The book highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, updating beliefs based on new evidence, and recognizing the limitations of human judgment.
Tetlock's study of "superforecasters," individuals who consistently outperform experts, reveals valuable insights into the art and science of prediction.
The book offers practical strategies for improving our own forecasting abilities and making better decisions in uncertain environments.
Mentioned by
Mentioned in 2 episodes
Mentioned by 
Anthony Pompliano in the context of discussing the value of eliciting feedback through writing and the superior accuracy of collective intelligence.
Anthony Pompliano in the context of discussing the value of eliciting feedback through writing and the superior accuracy of collective intelligence.
18 snips
David Perell, Founder of Write of Passage: The Downfall of Mainstream Media
Recommended as a book that could help you learn about forecasting.
Episode 436: Your Fear of Running Out of Money May Be Something Else And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 4, 2025
