Markets Plus Capital Markets Assumptions and Themes – Outlook for 2026
12 snips
Jan 15, 2026 Dan Phillips, Chief Investment Officer for BMO U.S. Wealth Management, and Carol Schleif, Chief Market Strategist at BMO Private Wealth, delve into capital market assumptions for 2026. They discuss geopolitical shifts, particularly the U.S.-China dynamic impacting institutions and trade. Carol highlights the effects of supply-chain realignments and innovation in AI, robotics, and quantum technologies. They also touch on emerging market instruments like prediction markets and warn of regulatory challenges in an evolving landscape.
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Update Assumptions For New Regimes
- Capital market assumptions blend historical relationships with forward-looking thematic adjustments.
- Dan Phillips warns regime shifts (rates, valuations, tech weight) require updating long-term return expectations.
Geopolitics Is Rewiring Globalization
- The Global Pivot describes a rewiring of globalization driven by geopolitics and automation.
- Dan Phillips sees the U.S. and China as the primary axes shaping a less globalist world order.
Markets May Look Past Geopolitics — Until They Don't
- Markets often look through geopolitics short-term but must price shifting supply chains and security-driven industry focus.
- Carol Schleif highlights implications for energy, tech, rare earths, inflation, and interest rates.
