80,000 Hours Podcast

Our lives currently revolve around the global emergency of COVID-19; you’re probably reading this while confined to your house, as the death toll from the worst pandemic since 1918 continues to rise.  The question of how to tackle COVID-19 has been foremost in the minds of many, including here at 80,000 Hours. Today's guest, Dr Gregory Lewis, acting head of the Biosecurity Research Group at Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute, puts the crisis in context, explaining how COVID-19 compares to other diseases, pandemics of the past, and possible worse crises in the future. COVID-19 is a vivid reminder that we are unprepared to contain or respond to new pathogens. How would we cope with a virus that was even more contagious and even more deadly? Greg's work focuses on these risks -- of outbreaks that threaten our entire future through an unrecoverable collapse of civilisation, or even the extinction of humanity. Links to learn more, summary and full transcript. If such a catastrophe were to occur, Greg believes it’s more likely to be caused by accidental or deliberate misuse of biotechnology than by a pathogen developed by nature. There are a few direct causes for concern: humans now have the ability to produce some of the most dangerous diseases in history in the lab; technological progress may enable the creation of pathogens which are nastier than anything we see in nature; and most biotechnology has yet to even be conceived, so we can’t assume all the dangers will be familiar. This is grim stuff, but it needn’t be paralysing. In the years following COVID-19, humanity may be inspired to better prepare for the existential risks of the next century: improving our science, updating our policy options, and enhancing our social cohesion. COVID-19 is a tragedy of stunning proportions, and its immediate threat is undoubtedly worthy of significant resources. But we will get through it; if a future biological catastrophe poses an existential risk, we may not get a second chance. It is therefore vital to learn every lesson we can from this pandemic, and provide our descendants with the security we wish for ourselves. Today’s episode is the hosting debut of our Strategy Advisor, Howie Lempel. 80,000 Hours has focused on COVID-19 for the last few weeks and published over ten pieces about it, and a substantial benefit of this interview was to help inform our own views. As such, at times this episode may feel like eavesdropping on a private conversation, and it is likely to be of most interest to people primarily focused on making the long-term future go as well as possible. In this episode, Howie and Greg cover: • Reflections on the first few months of the pandemic • Common confusions around COVID-19 • How COVID-19 compares to other diseases • What types of interventions have been available to policymakers • Arguments for and against working on global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) • How to know if you’re a good fit to work on GCBRs • The response of the effective altruism community, as well as 80,000 Hours in particular, to COVID-19  • And much more. Chapters:Rob’s intro (00:00:00)The interview begins (00:03:15)What is COVID-19? (00:16:05)If you end up infected, how severe is it likely to be? (00:19:21)How does COVID-19 compare to other diseases? (00:25:42)Common confusions around COVID-19 (00:32:02)What types of interventions were available to policymakers? (00:46:20)Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (01:04:18)What can you do personally? (01:18:25)Reflections on the first few months of the pandemic (01:23:46)Global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) (01:26:17)Counterarguments to working on GCBRs (01:45:56)How do GCBRs compare to other problems? (01:49:05)Careers (01:59:50)The response of the effective altruism community to COVID-19 (02:11:42)The response of 80,000 Hours to COVID-19 (02:28:12)Get this episode by subscribing: type '80,000 Hours' into your podcasting app. Or read the linked transcript. Producer: Keiran Harris. Audio mastering: Ben Cordell. Transcriptions: Zakee Ulhaq.

Discover the looming danger of global catastrophic biological risks and their historical context, from the Black Death to COVID-19. Explore the challenges in recognizing these threats influenced by cognitive biases and inadequate policies. Delve into the complexities of dual-use biological research, focusing on gain-of-function experiments and the need for better governance. Learn how assessing these risks relates to broader existential threats like AI and nuclear dangers, emphasizing the importance of expert consensus and future career opportunities in biosecurity.

In this engaging discussion, Howie Lumpel, a biosecurity and pandemic preparedness expert, joins to share insights on the COVID-19 crisis. They explore alarming projections of potential fatalities and personal health risks. Howie emphasizes individual actions to curb the virus's spread and the critical roles governments must play. The conversation highlights missteps in societal responses and the importance of optimism for future preparedness. Listeners will find valuable resources and actionable advice to navigate these unprecedented times.

Phil Trammell, an economics researcher at Oxford's Global Priorities Institute, dives into the intriguing world of patient philanthropy. He argues that delaying charitable giving can amplify the impact of donations over centuries, potentially turning $1,000 into millions through strategic investments. The discussion touches on how future generations will possess knowledge we lack today, enhancing charitable effectiveness. Trammell also tackles the tension between immediate giving and long-term investment, especially in light of urgent global issues like COVID-19.

Toby Ord, a moral philosopher at Oxford and author of 'The Precipice,' discusses humanity's precarious future. He reveals a staggering 1 in 6 chance of extinction this century due to both natural and human-made risks. Toby highlights the threat of supervolcanoes over asteroids, the alarming underfunding of global safety agreements, and the existential risks posed by AI. He emphasizes the importance of proactive measures, long-term planning, and moral dialogue to ensure a thriving future for humanity.

In this engaging discussion, Benjamin Todd, CEO and co-founder of 80,000 Hours, shares insights on making impactful career choices aimed at solving global challenges. He explores the evolution of their organizational mission and the importance of understanding career capital. Todd delves into ethical frameworks like long-termism and how today's decisions shape future generations. Listeners gain valuable perspectives on balancing personal fulfillment with altruistic goals, cooperation in group efforts, and navigating the complexities of impactful careers.

In this engaging dialogue, Arden Koehler, a recent philosophy PhD graduate and researcher, tackles weighty topics like the demandingness of morality and work-life balance. They discuss whether incremental ethical improvements are better than giving up entirely on moral pursuits. Arden and her co-host delve into the emotional reactions to injustice, questioning if anger is warranted. They also examine the complexities of generous living and the challenges of balancing altruism with personal contentment, all while navigating the intricacies of consequentialist philosophy.

Dr. Cassidy Nelson, a medical doctor and researcher at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, discusses essential strategies for pandemic prevention. She emphasizes the need for innovative genetic sequencing tests and broad-spectrum antiviral drugs. The conversation highlights the importance of proactive planning and international cooperation in managing future outbreaks. As she shares her research group's twelve actionable recommendations, she underscores the urgency of improving global health systems to effectively combat emerging infectious diseases.

Jeffrey Ding, a lead China researcher at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, delves into the complexities of China's AI landscape. He dispels myths about China’s AI strategy, emphasizing its long historical context and the significant role of private companies. The discussion contrasts the U.S.-China AI rivalry with cultural narratives and misconceptions surrounding surveillance practices. Ding also illuminates the social credit system's realities and the unique work culture that fuels China's tech advancements, encouraging a nuanced understanding of its AI ambitions.

Howie Lempel, a researcher focused on pandemics and global catastrophic risks, joins Robert Wiblin to delve into the emerging 2019-nCoV virus. They discuss its origins, contagion rates, and the complexities of estimating fatality statistics. The conversation highlights the challenges of public health responses, the implications of asymptomatic cases, and the need for effective communication during health crises. Lempel emphasizes preparedness, navigating uncertainty, and the ethical quandaries surrounding personal protective measures.