80,000 Hours Podcast Article: Reducing global catastrophic biological risks
Apr 15, 2020
Discover the looming danger of global catastrophic biological risks and their historical context, from the Black Death to COVID-19. Explore the challenges in recognizing these threats influenced by cognitive biases and inadequate policies. Delve into the complexities of dual-use biological research, focusing on gain-of-function experiments and the need for better governance. Learn how assessing these risks relates to broader existential threats like AI and nuclear dangers, emphasizing the importance of expert consensus and future career opportunities in biosecurity.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Defining GCBRs
- Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs) are biological risks that could cause significant global damage.
- GCBRs threaten the long-term trajectory of humankind, possibly even leading to human extinction.
AMR and GCBRs
- Not all large-scale biological events are GCBRs.
- Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), while damaging, is unlikely to be a GCBR because worst-case scenarios have precedent in human history.
Near-GCBR Events
- Historical "near GCBR" events like the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Columbian Exchange, and the 1918 flu pandemic offer insights.
- These events, while devastating, didn't cause true global catastrophes because they didn't combine high mortality, global reach, and long-term civilizational impact.
