#69 – Jeffrey Ding on China, its AI dream, and what we get wrong about both

Feb 6, 2020

Jeffrey Ding, a lead China researcher at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, delves into the complexities of China's AI landscape. He dispels myths about China’s AI strategy, emphasizing its long historical context and the significant role of private companies. The discussion contrasts the U.S.-China AI rivalry with cultural narratives and misconceptions surrounding surveillance practices. Ding also illuminates the social credit system's realities and the unique work culture that fuels China's tech advancements, encouraging a nuanced understanding of its AI ambitions.

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INSIGHT

China's AI Development

Jeff Ding studies China's AI development at the Center for the Governance of AI.
This work is important due to AI's central role in various sectors, including economic and military applications.

INSIGHT

Deciphering China's AI Dream

Jeff Ding's paper "Deciphering China's AI Dream" examines four aspects of China's AI approach.
These include context, components, capabilities, and implications for various sectors like national security and AI safety.

ANECDOTE

Misconceptions of Leadership

Western observers often perceive China as leading in national AI planning.
However, Chinese strategists believed they were behind the US and Japan in AI strategy.

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AI superpowers

China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order

Kai-Fu Lee

In this book, Kai-Fu Lee argues that China is poised to become the next tech-innovation superpower due to its unique advantages in AI development, such as abundant data, fewer data protection regulations, and aggressive tech startup culture. Lee discusses the potential economic upheaval caused by AI, the impact on employment, and proposes a social contract to forge a new synergy between AI and human society. The book emphasizes the need for both the US and China to accept and embrace the responsibilities that come with significant technological power.

The Party

Christopher Pike

The Party by Christopher Pike is the first book in the Final Friends trilogy. It focuses on a group of high school students who attend a party that ends in a tragic event. The story builds up slowly, introducing various characters and their relationships, before culminating in a suspenseful climax. The novel sets the stage for several mysteries, including the central death, which occurs near the end of the book.

Destined for War

Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

Graham Allison

In 'Destined for War,' Graham Allison explores the concept of the 'Thucydides Trap,' where the rise of a new power threatens the dominance of an existing one, often leading to war. Allison draws on 16 historical cases where a rising power challenged a dominant state, with 12 of these cases resulting in war. He applies this historical lens to the current relationship between the United States and China, highlighting the potential for conflict but also outlining '12 clues to peace' derived from historical analysis to prevent such an outcome. The book is divided into sections that cover the rise of China, historical lessons from the Peloponnesian War and other conflicts, and strategies for avoiding war based on these historical insights.

Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China

Ezra Vogel

This book provides a detailed account of Deng Xiaoping's life and his transformative impact on China. It explores his early involvement in the Communist Party, his rise to power, and his implementation of the 'Four Modernizations' to modernize agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology. The book also examines Deng's pragmatic leadership style, known as 'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics', and his controversial decisions, such as the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

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Nick Boster

Deciphering China's AI Dream

The Context, Components, Capabilities, and Consequences of China's Strategy to Lead the World in AI

Jeffrey Ding

This report provides a comprehensive overview of China's AI ambitions, placing them within the broader context of past science and technology plans. It examines the key components driving AI development in China, assesses its current AI capabilities, and discusses the potential consequences for AI safety, national security, economic development, and social governance.

The Wandering Earth

Liu Cixin

The Wandering Earth is a collection of science fiction stories by Cixin Liu, including the title tale that inspired a blockbuster film. The book explores humanity's attempts to reason, navigate, and survive in a vast universe, often focusing on themes of hope and the inevitability of demise. It includes five Chinese Galaxy Award-winning stories, offering a unique blend of scientific speculation and philosophical insights.

The Transpacific Experiment

How China and California Collaborate and Compete for Our Future

Matt Sheehan

The Transpacific Experiment chronicles the complex interactions between China and California, highlighting entrepreneurs, activists, and politicians who drive transformations with global implications. The book delves into stories such as a Southern Californian mayor seeking a Chinese electric bus factory and a Chinese AI researcher competing with Google from behind the Great Firewall.

The State Council of China's 2017 AI plan was the starting point of China’s AI planning; China’s approach to AI is defined by its top-down and monolithic nature; China is winning the AI arms race; and there is little to no discussion of issues of AI ethics and safety in China. How many of these ideas have you heard?

In his paper Deciphering China's AI Dream, today's guest, PhD student Jeff Ding, outlines why he believes none of these claims are true.

• Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

• What’s the best charity to donate to?

He first places China’s new AI strategy in the context of its past science and technology plans, as well as other countries’ AI plans. What is China actually doing in the space of AI development?

Jeff emphasises that China's AI strategy did not appear out of nowhere with the 2017 state council AI development plan, which attracted a lot of overseas attention. Rather that was just another step forward in a long trajectory of increasing focus on science and technology. It's connected with a plan to develop an 'Internet of Things', and linked to a history of strategic planning for technology in areas like aerospace and biotechnology.

And it was not just the central government that was moving in this space; companies were already pushing forward in AI development, and local level governments already had their own AI plans. You could argue that the central government was following their lead in AI more than the reverse.

What are the different levers that China is pulling to try to spur AI development?

Here, Jeff wanted to challenge the myth that China's AI development plan is based on a monolithic central plan requiring people to develop AI. In fact, bureaucratic agencies, companies, academic labs, and local governments each set up their own strategies, which sometimes conflict with the central government.

Are China's AI capabilities especially impressive? In the paper Jeff develops a new index to measure and compare the US and China's progress in AI.

Jeff’s AI Potential Index — which incorporates trends and capabilities in data, hardware, research and talent, and the commercial AI ecosystem — indicates China’s AI capabilities are about half those of America. His measure, though imperfect, dispels the notion that China's AI capabilities have surpassed the US or make it the world's leading AI power.

Following that 2017 plan, a lot of Western observers thought that to have a good national AI strategy we'd need to figure out how to play catch-up with China. Yet Chinese strategic thinkers and writers at the time actually thought that they were behind — because the Obama administration had issued a series of three white papers in 2016.

Finally, Jeff turns to the potential consequences of China’s AI dream for issues of national security, economic development, AI safety and social governance.

He claims that, despite the widespread belief to the contrary, substantive discussions about AI safety and ethics are indeed emerging in China. For instance, a new book from Tencent’s Research Institute is proactive in calling for stronger awareness of AI safety issues.

In today’s episode, Rob and Jeff go through this widely-discussed report, and also cover:

• The best analogies for thinking about the growing influence of AI
• How do prominent Chinese figures think about AI?
• Coordination with China
• China’s social credit system
• Suggestions for people who want to become professional China specialists
• And more.

Chapters:

Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
The interview begins (00:01:02)
Deciphering China’s AI Dream (00:04:17)
Analogies for thinking about AI (00:12:30)
How do prominent Chinese figures think about AI? (00:16:15)
Cultural cliches in the West and China (00:18:59)
Coordination with China on AI (00:24:03)
Private companies vs. government research (00:28:55)
Compute (00:31:58)
China’s social credit system (00:41:26)
Relationship between China and other countries beyond AI (00:43:51)
Careers advice (00:54:40)
Jeffrey’s talk at EAG (01:16:01)
Rob’s outro (01:37:12)

Producer: Keiran Harris.
Audio mastering: Ben Cordell.
Transcriptions: Zakee Ulhaq.