80,000 Hours Podcast Emergency episode: Rob & Howie on the menace of COVID-19, and what both governments & individuals might do to help
Mar 19, 2020
In this engaging discussion, Howie Lumpel, a biosecurity and pandemic preparedness expert, joins to share insights on the COVID-19 crisis. They explore alarming projections of potential fatalities and personal health risks. Howie emphasizes individual actions to curb the virus's spread and the critical roles governments must play. The conversation highlights missteps in societal responses and the importance of optimism for future preparedness. Listeners will find valuable resources and actionable advice to navigate these unprecedented times.
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Global Shift
- COVID-19 is no longer just a Chinese issue.
- Most confirmed cases are outside mainland China, showing a global shift.
Varying Fatality Rates
- Case fatality rates vary significantly, like the eightfold difference between South Korea (1%) and Italy (8.3%).
- This variation suggests differences in demographics and testing capacity.
Infection Fatality Rate
- Consider the infection fatality rate (IFR), the probability of dying if infected, around 0.8-1.6%.
- These estimates apply to situations similar to what we've seen, but vary based on healthcare system capacity.