The Asia Chessboard

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Erin Murphy, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow for the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she is currently transitioning to the Asia Program. Erin's career has so far spanned public and private sector roles, including as an analyst on Asian political and foreign policy issues at the Central Intelligence Agency, director for the Indo-Pacific at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and founder and principal of a boutique advisory firm focused on Myanmar. She is also the author of Burmese Haze: US Policy and Myanmar's Opening-and Closing (Association for Asian Studies, 2022).  The conversation begins by examining the state of affairs in Myanmar, including the lead up and aftermath of the 2021 military coup. Next they explore Myanmar’s relationship with China and the degree of Beijing’s policy influence over the the current leadership. They observe Myanmar’s evolving relationships with India and Japan, before turning to consider the space available for China to make common cause with other countries in the region to address some of the problems unfolding in Myanmar. They conclude by discussing the impact of the ongoing crisis in Myanmar on ASEAN, and surveying Myanmar’s possible trajectories in the medium and long term.  

C. Raja Mohan, a Senior Fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute, discusses India's strategic evolution since the Cold War, its role in BRICS and changing relationships with Taipei, Japan, and Australia. The conversation concludes with an assessment of what India wants for its strategic future and its interaction with the international world order.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Thomas Parks, Country Representative for Thailand with The Asia Foundation and author of the recently published book Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold War.They begin with an overview of Southeast Asia’s experience during and following the Cold War and discuss the region’s desire to avoid a re-division into blocs. They explore how regional states are seeking to preserve strategic ambiguity in their international relations and diversify their economic partnerships to avoid becoming highly dependent on any one great power. They then consider the effects a conflict in Taiwan would have on regional states’ autonomy and probable reactions if conflict were to occur, as well as regional perspectives on the prospects for major U.S.-China decoupling and associated vulnerabilities.  The conservation concludes by exploring space for multipolar cooperation in the region among small and middle powers, how they have prioritized deep connections with each other, and how this in turn allows them to enter into robust security or economic relationships with major powers while also preserving the perception of autonomy in the eyes of their peers. 

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Choi Shing Kwok, Director & Chief Executive Officer of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, and head of the ASEAN Studies Centre and Singapore APEC Study Centre, to discuss ASEAN perspectives on issues in the Indo-Pacific. The conversation first examines ASEAN’s current structure, organizational challenges, and the diversity of its individual members. They then discuss ASEAN’s relationships and interaction with other regional players, including Japan and Australia. Next, they turn to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2023 Survey Report on the State of Southeast Asia, reviewing how the region views U.S.-China tensions and the priorities of the ASEAN nations as they navigate rising U.S.-China competition. They analyze the reactions of ASEAN members to Secretary Blinken’s June trip to Beijing and discuss survey trends which suggest growing support for the United States and the Quad in Southeast Asia. They conclude by considering how U.S. policy could be best designed to improve levels of trust among ASEAN member publics.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Professor Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and the principal drafter of the Australian government’s recent Defence Strategic Review, to discuss developments in Australia’s defense planning.  The conversation begins with a discussion of the Defence Strategic Review and the significant shift in Australia's strategic outlook that it represents. Next, Mike, Jude and Peter discuss how the perceived sustainability of U.S. engagement in the region factors into Australian defense planning. They examine developments in Chinese military capabilities that Canberra is watching closely, and what responses might be demanded. They then consider the complications of executing a cultural transformation in Australia’s defense forces and building national resilience. After turning briefly to Australia’s relationship with Taiwan and potential reactions to a contingency in and around the Taiwan Strait, they conclude with a discussion of the evolving U.S.-Australia alliance and how its further development can underpin stability in the Indo-Pacific region.  

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Dr. Susan Shirk, Founding Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego and the author of Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2022), which examines the evolution of China’s domestic and foreign policy over the last 15 years. The conversation begins by examining steps taken toward political decentralization and economic liberalization under Hu Jintao—and the reversal of these trends under Xi Jinping. Next, they discuss Xi’s governance style and the shortcomings of loyalty-based political systems. The discussion then turns to the recent G7 summit in Hiroshima and China’s reaction to its outcomes. After assessing U.S. China policy during the Trump and Biden administrations, they then consider how Xi might respond to renewed diplomatic overtures. After a discussion of the risks of U.S. overreaction to Beijing’s policies, they conclude with reflections on what—if any—actions can be taken to stabilize the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Scott Morrison, former Australian Prime Minister and leader of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party from 2018-2022.  The conversation begins by assessing developments in China-Australia relations during Morrison’s time in office, delving into the various equities at play and domestic debates that unfolded as the government reevaluated the links between economics and national security and moved to a tougher approach on China.They then discuss Australia’s experience with Chinese economic coercion, and the importance of finding alignment between partners to build resilience to Chinese pressure. Next, they reflect on the growing strategic importance of the Quad, AUKUS, and Australia’s relationship with India. They wrap up with a discussion of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, assessing effective elements and identifying where U.S. policy needs to be improved.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Paul Haenle, Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair of Carnegie China and former China director for the National Security Council staffs of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and Faryar Shirzad, who served in the Bush administration with Paul as deputy national security advisor for International Economic affairs and is now Chief Policy Office at Coinbase.They begin by recapping economic and security ties between the United States and China at the outset of the Bush administration in 2001, discussing the administration’s China policy and the legacy of its approach to Asia more broadly. The conversation turns to the broader implications of trends in U.S.-China economic relations, which are increasingly characterized by heightened government controls and expectations of national loyalty among multinational firms. Next, they emphasize the importance of placing the U.S.-China relationship on better footing and improving communication. They observe how the Bush administration’s efforts to shape the geopolitical environment around China have borne out today and conclude with a call for renewed U.S. pursuit of economic diplomacy. Throughout the conversation, they discuss Hand-Off, a collection of once-classified memos that the Bush administration passed to the incoming Obama administration to support a smooth transition for U.S. foreign policy.

On July 16, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment charging Sue Mi Terry with violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The indictment alleges activities that took place, in part, during a period in which Ms. Terry was employed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS is not a party to this litigation and takes the allegations seriously. CSIS maintains strict policies to ensure full compliance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act and the intellectual independence of its scholarship. In light of these serious allegations, CSIS cannot verify the independence of the scholarship of this material containing the views of Ms. Terry and has therefore archived this content pending the resolution of the charges.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Kurt M. Campbell, Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs in the National Security Council, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Adviser on China at the U.S. Department of State's Policy Planning Staff.  They begin by discussing educational and professional experiences that build the groundwork for successful careers in international relations.  They then discuss the recent one-year anniversary of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, noting that the approach reflects the recognition of “a new strategic era” in the region. They underline the Strategy’s focus on alliances and emphasize the importance of promoting broader regional engagement and shared interests beyond the framework of competition with China. Next, they discuss the implications of China’s evolving diplomatic approach towards the United States and regional partners. They conclude the conversation by exploring recent narratives of China’s overreach, and how U.S. strategy might react to a course correction in Beijing that would present China as a stronger, more reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific.