The Asia Chessboard

Mike is joined by Dr. John Kunkel, Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. Dr. Kunkel has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, and adviser to government and industry executive and previously served as Chief of Staff to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He has a PhD in Economics from the Australian National University and is the author of "America's Trade Policy Towards Japan: Demanding Results", a study of US-Japan trade relations from Reagan to Clinton. The conversation begins by placing the Australian economy amid the shifting economic order of recent years. Mike and John note that the contemporary Australian debate has come late in adapting to these global economic changes, partially due to the country’s large resource base and overall economic resilience and flexibility. They discuss the unique position of Australia’s experience with globalization, which allowed it to avoid the worst of the domestic economic drawbacks that afflicted Europe and the United States. They then delve into the impact of ‘Bidenomics’ and US industrial policy on the economic debate in Australia, assessing how Australia is looking at these more protectionist policies to understand both the wrinkles and opportunities they present. After a discussion of evolving global economic dynamics and what a new American trade agenda should look like, they conclude by discussing an upcoming economic security conference in Australia, which is targeted at interpreting different international economic security policies, and tracking how these are transitioning over time. 

Dr. Joseph Chinyong Liow, Tan Kah Kee Chair of Comparative and International Politics at Nanyang Technological University and Research Advisor for the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, discusses the state of U.S.-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific and Singapore's grand strategy. They also delve into ideological concerns in foreign policy choices in Southeast Asia, as well as the conflict in Gaza and reactions in Singapore and the region.

Mike and Jude are joined by Evan Medeiros, Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies and the Cling Family Senior Fellow in US-China Relations at Georgetown University. He is also a Senior Advisor with The Asia Group and previously served for six years on the staff of the National Security Council as Director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia - and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. He is editor and contributing author to the recent book Cold Rivals: The New Era of US-China Strategic Competition. The conversation begins by evaluating the relative successes and failures of U.S. engagement toward China over previous decades and the state of the U.S.-China relationship. They review the field of China studies in the United States, exploring how it has adjusted in recent years in response to a changing China and evolving bilateral ties. After assessing the effects of Xi Jinping’s arrival on China’s political stage on bilateral relations and the current state of crisis communications between the U.S. and China, they conclude by forecasting the what the relationship will hold in the coming years and the challenges and pitfalls of managing strategic competition. 

Mike and Jude are joined by Sergey Radchenko, the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Sergey is an accomplished author, and has written extensively on the Cold War, nuclear history, and on Russian and Chinese foreign and security policies. The conversation begins by delving into the nature of Beijing’s ties with Moscow, and how they have evolved from the Cold War. They explore points of divergence in the interests of China and Russia, and assess how both countries have reacted to frictions in the relationship over time. Next, they turn to the war in Ukraine, examining to what extent tightening Beijing-Moscow ties might have affected Putin’s ultimate decision to invade, and then discuss China’s strategic interests in how the conflict ends. Finally, they discuss ideological alignment between China and Russia, and how each state aims to shape the global order, before briefly considering the scope of Russia’s likely responses to escalating tensions between the U.S. and China in Asia. 

Huong Le Thu, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the International Crisis Group, discusses Vietnam's strategic thinking and its leverage of competition between China and the US. They explore Vietnam's decision to upgrade its relationship with the US and Chinese inroads in South and Southeast Asia. Vietnam is adopting an omnidirectional foreign policy to improve resilience, while envisioning an evolving role for ASEAN.

Mr. Tatsuya Terazawa, Chairman and CEO of the Institute of Energy Economics in Japan, discusses Japan's strategy for de-risking and technology competition. They explore China's role in the clean energy transition and the need for better coordination among stakeholders. The dispute between China and Japan over Fukushima's wastewater and the balancing act of reducing emissions while safeguarding business interests are also examined.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Erin Murphy, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow for the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she is currently transitioning to the Asia Program. Erin's career has so far spanned public and private sector roles, including as an analyst on Asian political and foreign policy issues at the Central Intelligence Agency, director for the Indo-Pacific at the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and founder and principal of a boutique advisory firm focused on Myanmar. She is also the author of Burmese Haze: US Policy and Myanmar's Opening-and Closing (Association for Asian Studies, 2022).  The conversation begins by examining the state of affairs in Myanmar, including the lead up and aftermath of the 2021 military coup. Next they explore Myanmar’s relationship with China and the degree of Beijing’s policy influence over the the current leadership. They observe Myanmar’s evolving relationships with India and Japan, before turning to consider the space available for China to make common cause with other countries in the region to address some of the problems unfolding in Myanmar. They conclude by discussing the impact of the ongoing crisis in Myanmar on ASEAN, and surveying Myanmar’s possible trajectories in the medium and long term.  

C. Raja Mohan, a Senior Fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute, discusses India's strategic evolution since the Cold War, its role in BRICS and changing relationships with Taipei, Japan, and Australia. The conversation concludes with an assessment of what India wants for its strategic future and its interaction with the international world order.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Thomas Parks, Country Representative for Thailand with The Asia Foundation and author of the recently published book Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold War.They begin with an overview of Southeast Asia’s experience during and following the Cold War and discuss the region’s desire to avoid a re-division into blocs. They explore how regional states are seeking to preserve strategic ambiguity in their international relations and diversify their economic partnerships to avoid becoming highly dependent on any one great power. They then consider the effects a conflict in Taiwan would have on regional states’ autonomy and probable reactions if conflict were to occur, as well as regional perspectives on the prospects for major U.S.-China decoupling and associated vulnerabilities.  The conservation concludes by exploring space for multipolar cooperation in the region among small and middle powers, how they have prioritized deep connections with each other, and how this in turn allows them to enter into robust security or economic relationships with major powers while also preserving the perception of autonomy in the eyes of their peers. 

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Choi Shing Kwok, Director & Chief Executive Officer of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, and head of the ASEAN Studies Centre and Singapore APEC Study Centre, to discuss ASEAN perspectives on issues in the Indo-Pacific. The conversation first examines ASEAN’s current structure, organizational challenges, and the diversity of its individual members. They then discuss ASEAN’s relationships and interaction with other regional players, including Japan and Australia. Next, they turn to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2023 Survey Report on the State of Southeast Asia, reviewing how the region views U.S.-China tensions and the priorities of the ASEAN nations as they navigate rising U.S.-China competition. They analyze the reactions of ASEAN members to Secretary Blinken’s June trip to Beijing and discuss survey trends which suggest growing support for the United States and the Quad in Southeast Asia. They conclude by considering how U.S. policy could be best designed to improve levels of trust among ASEAN member publics.