The Asia Chessboard

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Professor Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and the principal drafter of the Australian government’s recent Defence Strategic Review, to discuss developments in Australia’s defense planning.  The conversation begins with a discussion of the Defence Strategic Review and the significant shift in Australia's strategic outlook that it represents. Next, Mike, Jude and Peter discuss how the perceived sustainability of U.S. engagement in the region factors into Australian defense planning. They examine developments in Chinese military capabilities that Canberra is watching closely, and what responses might be demanded. They then consider the complications of executing a cultural transformation in Australia’s defense forces and building national resilience. After turning briefly to Australia’s relationship with Taiwan and potential reactions to a contingency in and around the Taiwan Strait, they conclude with a discussion of the evolving U.S.-Australia alliance and how its further development can underpin stability in the Indo-Pacific region.  

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Dr. Susan Shirk, Founding Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego and the author of Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2022), which examines the evolution of China’s domestic and foreign policy over the last 15 years. The conversation begins by examining steps taken toward political decentralization and economic liberalization under Hu Jintao—and the reversal of these trends under Xi Jinping. Next, they discuss Xi’s governance style and the shortcomings of loyalty-based political systems. The discussion then turns to the recent G7 summit in Hiroshima and China’s reaction to its outcomes. After assessing U.S. China policy during the Trump and Biden administrations, they then consider how Xi might respond to renewed diplomatic overtures. After a discussion of the risks of U.S. overreaction to Beijing’s policies, they conclude with reflections on what—if any—actions can be taken to stabilize the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Scott Morrison, former Australian Prime Minister and leader of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party from 2018-2022.  The conversation begins by assessing developments in China-Australia relations during Morrison’s time in office, delving into the various equities at play and domestic debates that unfolded as the government reevaluated the links between economics and national security and moved to a tougher approach on China.They then discuss Australia’s experience with Chinese economic coercion, and the importance of finding alignment between partners to build resilience to Chinese pressure. Next, they reflect on the growing strategic importance of the Quad, AUKUS, and Australia’s relationship with India. They wrap up with a discussion of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, assessing effective elements and identifying where U.S. policy needs to be improved.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Paul Haenle, Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair of Carnegie China and former China director for the National Security Council staffs of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and Faryar Shirzad, who served in the Bush administration with Paul as deputy national security advisor for International Economic affairs and is now Chief Policy Office at Coinbase.They begin by recapping economic and security ties between the United States and China at the outset of the Bush administration in 2001, discussing the administration’s China policy and the legacy of its approach to Asia more broadly. The conversation turns to the broader implications of trends in U.S.-China economic relations, which are increasingly characterized by heightened government controls and expectations of national loyalty among multinational firms. Next, they emphasize the importance of placing the U.S.-China relationship on better footing and improving communication. They observe how the Bush administration’s efforts to shape the geopolitical environment around China have borne out today and conclude with a call for renewed U.S. pursuit of economic diplomacy. Throughout the conversation, they discuss Hand-Off, a collection of once-classified memos that the Bush administration passed to the incoming Obama administration to support a smooth transition for U.S. foreign policy.

On July 16, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment charging Sue Mi Terry with violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The indictment alleges activities that took place, in part, during a period in which Ms. Terry was employed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS is not a party to this litigation and takes the allegations seriously. CSIS maintains strict policies to ensure full compliance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act and the intellectual independence of its scholarship. In light of these serious allegations, CSIS cannot verify the independence of the scholarship of this material containing the views of Ms. Terry and has therefore archived this content pending the resolution of the charges.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Kurt M. Campbell, Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs in the National Security Council, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Adviser on China at the U.S. Department of State's Policy Planning Staff.  They begin by discussing educational and professional experiences that build the groundwork for successful careers in international relations.  They then discuss the recent one-year anniversary of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, noting that the approach reflects the recognition of “a new strategic era” in the region. They underline the Strategy’s focus on alliances and emphasize the importance of promoting broader regional engagement and shared interests beyond the framework of competition with China. Next, they discuss the implications of China’s evolving diplomatic approach towards the United States and regional partners. They conclude the conversation by exploring recent narratives of China’s overreach, and how U.S. strategy might react to a course correction in Beijing that would present China as a stronger, more reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Emily Kilcrease, director of the Energy, Economics, and Security program at CNAS, who formerly served as deputy assistant U.S. trade representative and National Security Council director for international trade, investment, and development. They begin by examining the limits of U.S. leverage over semiconductor supply chains and how existing advantages are maintained by the continual innovation and investment of U.S. industry. They then discuss the U.S. government’s capacity to use semiconductor manufacturing chokepoints to slow China’s technological development and the recent expansion of U.S. export controls relating to sensitive high-end technologies. Next, they considered the broader effects of U.S. technology export policies and the need for the United States to adopt a multilateral approach that protects the high-tech industries of allies. They conclude the conversation by considering what form China’s response—and potential retaliation—to the new export controls might take. 

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Christopher B. Johnstone, former National Security Council director for Asia under President Biden and director for Japan and Oceanian affairs under President Obama who now serves as senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). They begin with a look at what Japan’s new national security strategy means for its role in the region and the U.S.-Japan alliance. Next, they turn to China-Japan relations, examining how Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration is navigating declining Japanese public sentiment toward his country’s largest trading partner. They then discuss how conversations in Tokyo are unfolding about what type of role Japan might play in a potential conflict in and around Taiwan. The conversation concludes by examining how crisis management and crisis communications mechanisms between Taiwan, Japan, and China are evolving. 

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Bilahari Kausikan, Chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, and former Ambassador-at-Large and former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore. They start off the discussion with a look into Singapore’s history and how it has shaped its foreign policy outlook. Next, they discuss the effectiveness of ASEAN in maintaining balance of power in Southeast Asia. They then discuss China’s foreign policy trajectory, Southeast Asia’s position amidst heightened U.S.-China competition, and the performances of other Southeast Asian partnerships. Finally, they wrap up the discussion with a conversation on the future of the Sino-Russian relationship.

This week, Mike and Jude sit down with Pete Connolly, a retired officer in the Australian Defence Force and Adjunct Fellow with the Asia Program at CSIS, to discuss Chinese statecraft in the Pacific Islands. They start by unpacking China’s strategic interests in Melanesia and the Pacific Islands more broadly, and what its involvement in the region means for the U.S., Australia, and other allies and partners. Next, they dive into the military implications of increasing Chinese activity in the region. They then unpack allied interests in the Pacific Islands and local perceptions of China, the U.S., and Australia.