Huong Le Thu, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the International Crisis Group, discusses Vietnam's strategic thinking and its leverage of competition between China and the US. They explore Vietnam's decision to upgrade its relationship with the US and Chinese inroads in South and Southeast Asia. Vietnam is adopting an omnidirectional foreign policy to improve resilience, while envisioning an evolving role for ASEAN.
Vietnam practices an omnidirectional diplomacy, seeking to improve its resilience by strengthening relations with multiple partners.
Vietnam recognizes the challenges and opportunities presented by great power competition and aims to capitalize on the US-China rivalry.
Deep dives
Vietnam's Foreign Policy Approach
Vietnam's foreign policy approach is shaped by its historical experience and geopolitical position. It practices an omnidirectional diplomacy, seeking to be friends with everyone. Vietnam recognizes the challenges presented by great power competition and acknowledges both the challenges and opportunities. While it remains cautious and apprehensive of China, Vietnam also recognizes the importance of its relationship with the United States. The country's leaders aim to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the rivalry between the US and China.
Vietnam's Strategic Culture
Vietnam's strategic culture is heavily influenced by its historical experiences of power asymmetry and the need to protect its sovereignty. The country's outlook is shaped by its geopolitical circumstances, situated next to China and navigating the divide between continental and maritime Southeast Asia. Vietnam's strategic culture is characterized by a cautious and pragmatic approach, while also recognizing the changing geopolitical landscape and seeking to capitalize on opportunities.
The Challenges Facing Vietnam
Vietnam faces various challenges in its foreign policy, with China being the primary security preoccupation. While Vietnam remains concerned about a strong and assertive China, it's also wary of a potentially weakened China, as it could lead to more unpredictable strategic decisions. Additionally, Vietnam acknowledges past concerns about the US influencing its domestic politics but believes that relationship has improved, with reassurances that the US respects Vietnam's regime and does not seek to meddle. Overall, Vietnam carefully assesses and navigates the challenges posed by both China and the US.
Vietnam's Strategic Relationships
Vietnam's strategic relationships with countries like Japan, Korea, India, and Australia are significant and beneficial. These partnerships provide economic investment, diplomatic engagement, and capacity-building opportunities for Vietnam. While these relationships enhance Vietnam's position in the regional strategic landscape, there is room to deepen these connections further. However, Vietnam is cautious about the depth of its relationships and understands the need for continued balance and nuance in its strategic engagements.
Mike and Jude are joined by Huong Le Thu, Deputy Director of the Asia Program at the International Crisis Group. She is also an Adjunct Fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS and a former senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Her research on Vietnam’s defense and foreign policy, Southeast Asia’s security, ASEAN regionalism, and China-Southeast Asia relations has featured in a wide range of publications.
The conversation begins with an overview of Vietnam’s geostrategic landscape, exploring how the strategic thinking of its political leaders has matured over the recent years and months. Next, they describe Vietnam’s recent attempts to leverage competition between China and the United States to its advantage. They delve into the drivers behind Vietnam’s recent decision to upgrade its relationship with the United States to a comprehensive strategic partnership and review areas in which Chinese inroads in South and Southeast Asia may be underappreciated in the West. They then explore the ways in which Vietnam is adopting an omnidirectional foreign policy, seeking to improve its resilience by buttressing relations with as many partners as possible. Finally, they discuss the evolving role Vietnam envisions for ASEAN as it broadens its partnerships outside the region.
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