Exchanges

In this discussion, Eric Sheridan, a U.S. Internet Equity Research analyst at Goldman Sachs, and Kash Rangan, a U.S. Software Equity Research analyst, tackle AI bubble concerns. They dive into rising valuations and massive spending in the AI sector. Eric highlights the importance of free cash flow and distinctions from past bubbles. Kash examines software valuation dynamics and raises alarms about leverage risks. They also explore the circular capital flows between chipmakers and cloud firms, drawing parallels to the telecom era that could complicate revenue clarity.

Hui Shan, Chief China Economist at Goldman Sachs, shares her insights on China's economic outlook amid U.S.-China trade tensions. She highlights the surprising resilience of Chinese exports and the shifting trade patterns due to rerouting strategies. Shan also discusses the key takeaways from the Trump-Xi summit, potential durability of the trade truce, and China's strategic leverage in discussions over rare earths. Additionally, she revises China's growth forecasts upward and explores the transformative role of AI in bolstering future growth.

Tony Yoseloff, Managing Partner and CIO of Davidson Kempner Capital Management, shares insights into the shifting landscape of investment. He emphasizes the importance of blending public and private markets and discusses the lasting impacts of interest rate changes and the resurgence of M&A activity. Yoseloff also highlights emerging opportunities in India and Southern Europe, while warning against the risks of market concentration and uncertain AI-driven investments. His personal investment philosophy incorporates learning from past mistakes and understanding the potential for loss.

Daan Struyven, Co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, dives into the dynamic world of commodities. He discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants, revealing the potential price forecasts for Brent crude. Daan highlights the strategic importance of rare earths and shares insights on how investors can gain exposure, emphasizing that it's largely policy-driven. He also addresses the recent pullback in gold prices, attributing it to speculative actions, while advocating for commodities as a crucial portfolio diversifier.

Alan Waxman, Co-founder and CEO of Sixth Street, dives into the significance of firm culture and flexibility in investment strategies. He discusses the innovative Tau strategy, which optimizes risk-reward across multiple platforms. Waxman shares key lessons from the financial crisis and underscores the importance of collaboration and open communication in teams. He identifies exciting opportunities in real estate, AI, and sports investments, emphasizing that a strong culture is essential for driving success in multi-strategy investing.

David Mericle, Chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Research, unpacks the puzzling dynamics of the economy. He explains why solid GDP growth contrasts with slower job growth, attributing it to increased productivity and restricted immigration. The discussion also touches on the minimal impact of AI on hiring and the implications of recent tariffs. Additionally, David assesses the potential risks of labor market softening and how the Fed may adapt amidst incomplete data. His insights provide clarity on the current economic landscape.

In this enlightening discussion, Byron Deeter, a partner at Bessemer Venture Partners known for his savvy in cloud and AI investments, shares insights into the evolving venture landscape. He emphasizes the transformative power of AI, calling it the technology opportunity of our lifetimes. Byron also explores the importance of prioritizing founders over market potential and reflects on lessons learned from missed investments. Additionally, he highlights the intersection of sports and leadership, promoting fitness and mental health for CEOs through the STRIVE program.

Join Alex Blostein, a research analyst at Goldman Sachs, and Harold Hope, the global head of Vintage Strategies, as they explore the booming private equity secondaries market. They unpack its rise from niche to necessity, fueled by increasing liquidity needs and retail participation. Discover how investors leverage secondaries for diversification and the intricacies of micro valuation techniques. With predictions pointing to accelerated growth driven by fresh capital and asset diversity, this conversation reveals what the future holds for private markets.

Alec Phillips, Chief US political economist at Goldman Sachs Research, dives into the implications of the U.S. government shutdown on the economy. He discusses how this shutdown differs from past ones, particularly due to the current political climate. Alec analyzes who bears the brunt of the blame, potential duration based on key financial triggers, and quantifies the economic costs, including impacts on GDP. He also addresses market reactions and the Fed's likely responses amidst data gaps, providing insights on the risks of frequent shutdowns.

Neema Raphael, Chief Data Officer at Goldman Sachs, brings a wealth of knowledge on data strategy. She shares her journey from software engineer to leading data efforts, emphasizing the transformative potential of generative AI. Neema discusses the critical need for cultural shifts towards probabilistic models in finance and addresses the myth of data scarcity, arguing for the role of synthetic and proprietary data. She also highlights the importance of data cleaning and linking in unleashing AI's true business value, while addressing AI's impacts and her personal uses of technology.