Exchanges

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Goldman Sachs’ CIO of Wealth Management known for annual outlooks, discusses whether U.S. stocks will lead in 2026. She reviews 2025 performance, lays out regional and earnings expectations for 2026, flags China growth doubts, favors emerging markets ex-China, and weighs risks from AI hype versus public-market concentration.

David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, shares insights on the future of M&A and IPOs while highlighting the U.S.'s structural advantages over Europe and China. He emphasizes the ongoing acceleration of AI investments and its impact on productivity, countering doomsday predictions about job losses. Solomon discusses the firm's strategic advancements and the cultural values driving Goldman, along with the exogenous risks that keep him awake at night, ultimately expressing optimism about technology and market resilience.

In the third and final episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges Outlook 2026 series, Goldman Sachs Research’s Peter Oppenheimer, Kamakshya Trivedi, Daan Struyven, and Christian Mueller-Glissmann share the trends shaping assets and portfolio allocation in 2026. Learn more about Goldman Sachs’ outlooks for the year ahead: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks This episode was recorded on January 7th and 8th, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this engaging discussion, David Mericle, Chief U.S. economist, reveals how easing tariffs and recent fiscal changes might boost U.S. growth in 2026. Andrew Tilton, Chief Asia-Pacific economist, examines China’s property woes while highlighting manufacturing strengths that keep exports competitive. Jari Stehn, Chief European economist, contrasts Europe’s vulnerabilities with cyclical support, forecasting 1.3% growth. Tune in for insights into monetary policy divergences and the implications for emerging markets!

Join Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, a senior advisor at the Global Markets Research Group, as they delve into the macroeconomic outlook for 2026. They explore the optimistic U.S. growth trajectory aided by tariff relief and fiscal support. The discussion touches on China's dual challenges of export resilience and domestic weakness, along with implications for Europe. The guests also analyze inflation trends, labor market dynamics, and the impact of AI on productivity, predicting a complex yet promising year ahead.

Daan Struyven, Co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, sheds light on the evolving political landscape in Venezuela and its ramifications for global oil markets. He discusses Maduro's leadership shift and explains why immediate oil disruptions are unlikely. Notably, he delves into the complexities of heavy versus light crude and the critical role U.S. investment could play in revitalizing Venezuelan production. Daan also forecasts potential supply scenarios through 2030 and highlights the geopolitical implications for commodities like gold.

Eric Peters, leader of One River Asset Management and Coinbase Asset Management, dives into the intricacies of risk mitigation and trend following in finance. He shares his early trading lessons from the Chicago corn pit and discusses the significance of dynamic hedging and discretionary exits in investing. Eric also highlights global debt expansion as a major macro trend and delves into Bitcoin's evolving role as collateral. Finally, he envisions the future of asset management with a shift towards younger investors and the blending of DeFi with traditional markets.

Scott Goodwin, co-founder and managing partner of Diameter Capital Partners, dives deep into his investment philosophy and current credit market opportunities. He discusses early warning signs in consumer and housing credit, touching on the risks posed by private online lending. Scott reveals how Diameter strategically acquired Twitter debt through innovative research. He also examines the surge of AI's impact on telecom investments and warns about the potential threats to pre-GPT SaaS buyouts. Plus, he reflects on his journey from fantasy sports to finance, illuminating an intriguing path.

Mark Kennedy, founding director of the Wahba Initiative for Strategic Competition, teams up with Paul Triolo, partner at DGA Albright Stonebridge Group, to delve into the riveting US-China tech rivalry. They dissect the impact of US export controls on China's tech landscape and how these measures have accelerated China's drive for chip independence. The duo explores semiconductor choke points, the potential for self-sufficiency, and the critical role of energy availability for AI infrastructure. Unpacking each nation's strengths, they paint a vivid picture of the tech race's future.

David Kostin, the Chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, brings decades of insight on the current equity market's volatility and the implications of the AI trade. He highlights the nervousness among investors contrasted with stabilizing earnings. Kostin discusses potential bubbles in private markets, the performance struggles of fund managers, and where smart money is currently positioning itself. He also muses on his long career and shares memorable encounters with legendary investors like George Soros and Warren Buffett.