Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture

114 snips

Jan 13, 2026

Guest

Dominic Wilson

Guest

Jan Hatzius

Join Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, a senior advisor at the Global Markets Research Group, as they delve into the macroeconomic outlook for 2026. They explore the optimistic U.S. growth trajectory aided by tariff relief and fiscal support. The discussion touches on China's dual challenges of export resilience and domestic weakness, along with implications for Europe. The guests also analyze inflation trends, labor market dynamics, and the impact of AI on productivity, predicting a complex yet promising year ahead.

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INSIGHT

Clearer Growth Story For 2026

Jan Hatzius expects 2026 growth to be clearer and more positive as tariff increases recede and fiscal support kicks in.
Rate cuts and easier financial conditions add to the tailwinds supporting growth.

INSIGHT

U.S. Growth Fueled By Productivity And Policy

The U.S. outlook is for 2.5% year‑over‑year growth driven by fiscal boosts and rate cuts without tightening the labor market.
Productivity gains raise the economy's speed limit, keeping unemployment around 4.5%.

INSIGHT

Markets May Underprice U.S. Growth

Markets have room to upgrade their growth expectations versus Goldman Sachs' 2.5% U.S. forecast.
Joint bond and equity pricing implies the market sees growth a bit under 2%, leaving upside if data remain strong.

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In the first episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 series, Goldman Sachs Research’s Jan Hatzius and Dominic Wilson discuss the trends shaping the global economy and markets in the coming year.

This episode was recorded on January 8th, 2026.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

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