Exchanges Oil Market Impacts from Venezuela
56 snips
Jan 6, 2026 
Daan Struyven, Co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, sheds light on the evolving political landscape in Venezuela and its ramifications for global oil markets. He discusses Maduro's leadership shift and explains why immediate oil disruptions are unlikely. Notably, he delves into the complexities of heavy versus light crude and the critical role U.S. investment could play in revitalizing Venezuelan production. Daan also forecasts potential supply scenarios through 2030 and highlights the geopolitical implications for commodities like gold.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Venezuela: Small Current Output, Huge Reserves
- Venezuela currently produces ~800kbd, under 1% of global oil output but holds ~20% of reserves.
- Short-term supply risks are ambiguous, so price reaction has been muted.
Short-Term Price Impact Is Limited
- Short-term oil price impact is limited because upside and downside supply risks both rose.
- Goldman estimates Venezuela implies roughly ±$2/bbl price risk over the next year.
Quantifying The Production Swing
- Current production near 800kbd with symmetrical upside/downside of ~300–400kbd.
- That swing equates to about ±$2 per barrel within a year, per Goldman Sachs models.