Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives

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Jan 15, 2026

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In this engaging discussion, David Mericle, Chief U.S. economist, reveals how easing tariffs and recent fiscal changes might boost U.S. growth in 2026. Andrew Tilton, Chief Asia-Pacific economist, examines China’s property woes while highlighting manufacturing strengths that keep exports competitive. Jari Stehn, Chief European economist, contrasts Europe’s vulnerabilities with cyclical support, forecasting 1.3% growth. Tune in for insights into monetary policy divergences and the implications for emerging markets!

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INSIGHT

Tariff Drag Eases In 2026

David Mericle expects effective U.S. tariff rates to fall slightly in 2026, reducing tariff-related drag on growth.
He says most tariff impacts were felt in 2025 so tariffs should be less of a growth headwind this year.

INSIGHT

Front-Loaded Fiscal Boost Then Payback

The fiscal package provides a front-loaded boost worth over half a percentage point to GDP in H1 2026.
Mericle warns the boost fades and later-year spending cuts could make fiscal impulse slightly negative next year.

INSIGHT

Growth, Disinflation, And Fed Cuts

David Mericle forecasts roughly 2.5% Q4/Q4 U.S. GDP growth in 2026 with continued disinflation.
He expects the Fed to cut rates twice to a 3–3.25% federal funds rate as inflation approaches target.

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In the second episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges Outlook 2026 series, Goldman Sachs Research’s David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, and Jari Stehn discuss the trends shaping economies in the US, Asia, and Europe in 2026.

This episode was recorded on January 7 and 8, 2026.

Learn more about Goldman Sachs’ outlooks for the year ahead.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

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