Will US Stocks Outperform in 2026?

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Jan 27, 2026

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Goldman Sachs’ CIO of Wealth Management known for annual outlooks, discusses whether U.S. stocks will lead in 2026. She reviews 2025 performance, lays out regional and earnings expectations for 2026, flags China growth doubts, favors emerging markets ex-China, and weighs risks from AI hype versus public-market concentration.

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INSIGHT

U.S. Preeminence With Diversified Exposure

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani emphasizes U.S. preeminence as a long-term investment theme supported by stronger earnings.
She warns that U.S. overweight should coexist with non-U and emerging market exposure for diversification.

ADVICE

Stay Invested And Rebalance

Stay invested through volatility and deploy cash to strategic asset allocations when markets fall.
Rebalance rather than abandon allocations to capture long-term expected returns.

INSIGHT

Earnings Drive Sustainable Returns

U.S. equity gains in 2025 were backed by strong earnings growth, unlike non-U developed and China where prices rose despite weak earnings.
She argues prices follow earnings, so sustainable returns depend on earnings durability.

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Goldman Sachs’ Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the Investment Strategy Group and chief investment officer of Wealth Management, shares her team’s investment views for the year ahead. Find all our outlooks for the year ahead here: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks

This episode was recorded on January 9, 2026.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at www.GS.com/research/hedge.html.

Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party.

This material represents the views of the Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group and is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR). It is not research and is not intended as such. The views and opinions expressed by ISG may differ from those expressed by GIR, LP, or other departments or businesses of Goldman Sachs. Past performance is not indicative of future results which may vary.

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