Retailgentic: Agentic Commerce meets Retail and Brands

Matt Nichols is back, and a lot has changed since his first appearance on Retailgentic. Scot and Matt revisit the predictions he made six months ago, look at what came true far faster than expected, and dig into the infrastructure challenges that still stand between us and frictionless agentic transactions. From SKU mapping and API-first checkout to the economics of feeds and the future of retailer traffic, this episode is a full-stack view of where Agentic Commerce stands at the end of 2025, and what’s coming in 2026.If you want more of Matt’s backstory and Commerce Ventures’ thesis, listen to Episode 4! It pairs perfectly with this deep dive. In this episode, they cover: Why VC predictions used to take 5–10 years to play out… and now take 5–10 weeksWhat Commerce Ventures is hearing from both startups and their LP base (top retailers + PSPs)Why ACP isn’t “the solution”—and what infrastructure still needs to be builtThe “API vs. fake-it-til-you-make-it” debate in agentic transactionsHow retailers should think about feeds, reviews, and blocking scrapersWhy “AI magic on your own site” is step one for most brandsPredictions for 2026: traffic shifts, wallet battles, Apple’s eventual entry, and moreWhere Matt thinks the industry is overly optimistic, and where the real upside isIf this year taught us anything, it’s that the next six months will change more than the last six years. Stay tuned.Timestamps05:00 — Welcome back, Matt Nichols05:10 — Six months later, the world looks different05:35 — Commerce Ventures in 60 seconds06:30 — What changed in 2025?08:00 — Standards vs. infrastructure10:00 — Retailers’ three priorities right now12:40 — Static feeds → AI-centric feeds15:00 — Reviews, Q&A, and proprietary data17:30 — SKU-level identifiers20:00 — API-first checkout vs. agentic scraping22:30 — Fraud, agent authentication & whitelisting24:00 — Payments are further ahead than commerce infrastructure27:00 — What retailers are actually worried about30:00 — Google’s role in accelerating the shift32:00 — Vertical agents vs. horizontal giants34:00 — Predictions for 2026 & beyond38:00 — Final reflections👉 Connect with Matt: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthewnichols/👉 Learn more about Commerce Ventures: https://commerce.vc/🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates 🎧 Listen wherever you get your podcasts: Spotify, Apple, etc: https://retailgentic.transistor.fm

In this episode of Retailgentic, Scot sits down with Luca to unpack a research paper that blends academic rigor with real-world implications:“LLMs Reproduce Human Purchase Intent via Semantic Similarity licitation of Likert Ratings.”The paper, co-authored with Colgate-Palmolive researchers, explores whether AI can accurately simulate human reactions to product concepts, enough to replace or accelerate traditional consumer panels, which are slow, expensive, and hard to scale.This one goes deep, but in ways that any retail or AI leader should care about. Scot and Luca discuss:Colgate’s Challenge: How to test product concepts faster and at scale.Synthetic Consumers: AI models that react to products like human panels.Accuracy Breakthrough: Reaching ~73–74% agreement with real consumers.Fixing LLM Failure Modes: Why naive prompts don’t work, and what does.Bayesian Reasoning: Adding uncertainty so AI stops being confidently wrong.Smarter A/B Testing: Using AI to pre-screen ideas before running live experiments.Digital Clones: Future consumers earning money by sharing preference data safely.Simulated Populations: Matching real audiences for testing and predictions.AI isn’t just helping brands write copy or generate images, it’s beginning to think like their customers. If synthetic consumers continue to evolve at this pace, product development, A/B testing, and personalization may look completely different in just a few years.Timestamps: 03:00 — Luca’s background: Rocket Internet, HelloFresh, Lazada, Stitch Fix08:00 — How PyMC Labs was founded & why Bayesian modeling matters16:00 — Bayesian thinking explained in simple terms19:00 — High-stakes decisions & why probabilistic reasoning matters24:00 — Colgate’s challenge: testing product concepts at scale26:00 — How synthetic consumer panels work30:00 — Accuracy results: humans vs. AI (~73–74%)32:00 — Why naive LLM prompting fails (“mode collapse”)35:00 — How reasoning → scoring solves accuracy issues38:00 — Example: synthetic consumers evaluating PyMC’s own website redesign44:00 — How AI can pre-screen ideas for smarter A/B testing48:00 — Where AI cannot replace causal testing49:00 — Digital clones & monetizable consumer preferences52:00 — Future benchmarks, new LLMs & evaluation methods👉 Connect with Luca: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lfiaschi/👉 Learn more about PyMC Labs: https://www.pymc-labs.com👉 Check out the paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.08338🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates 🎧 Listen wherever you get your podcasts: Spotify, Apple, etc: https://retailgentic.transistor.fm#Retailgentic #AgenticCommerce #SyntheticConsumers #AIShopping #ProductTesting #CPGInnovation #GenerativeAI #BayesianModeling #Ecommerce #FutureOfRetail #DataScience #LLMs #AIResearch

In this episode of Retailgentic, host Scot sits down with Mike Edmonds, PayPal’s VP of Agentic Commerce & Commercial Growth, to unpack the massive pivot PayPal has made into the Agentic Commerce era, and what it means for retailers, brands, platforms, and developers.Mike goes deep on:PayPal’s Agentic Bet: Why PayPal is going all-in on Agentic CommerceMerchant Anxiety, Explained: The real reason so many merchants are anxious about LLMsInstant Checkout 2.0: Where PayPal sees Instant Checkout heading nextWallets as Identity: Why wallet identity will matter more than ever2030 Predictions: Mike’s bold predictions for shopping agents in 2030Two-Track Future: A world split between autonomous commerce and luxury human-led experiencesProtocol Chaos Simplified: How PayPal plans to tame and unify an explosion of competing protocolsMerchant of Record Relief: The surprising emotional fear merchants have about disintermediationAs AI agents reshape discovery, checkout, and trust, PayPal is building the rails for the future of digital commerce.Key Timestamps:02:15 — Mike introduces his background.04:45 — How Mike’s career path led directly into PayPal’s Agentic Commerce leadership role.06:20 — What “VP of Agentic Commerce & Commercial Growth” really means at PayPal.07:48 — The biggest lessons Mike learned leading AI strategy at Microsoft.10:35 — What merchants are actually thinking about Agentic Commerce (the real pulse).12:18 — Mike explains the off-surface vs on-surface Agentic Commerce model.13:10 — Why merchants feel overwhelmed by LLMs, APIs, and protocol sprawl.14:47 — PayPal’s role as the one-to-many connector across LLMs and platforms.16:06 — What technical pieces merchants need in place to integrate Agentic checkout.17:45 — How on-surface conversational agents can finally boost conversion rates.19:30 — Why conversational checkout is the missing piece in Agentic shopping.20:55 — What the Perplexity partnership enables for checkout, payments, and reach.23:30 — How PayPal is powering ChatGPT Instant Checkout and expanding ACP.26:12 — Why Agentic protocols are diverging, and how PayPal navigates the chaos.28:30 — The emotional fear merchants have of LLMs.30:05 — Mike’s 2030 prediction31:40 — Why some categories will automate, while luxury experiences stay human.33:10 — Multimodal will reshape shopping through voice, gestures, and identity.35:00 — The top concerns merchants raise in every PayPal Agentic conversation.37:05 — Where to find Mike and what PayPal has coming next.Announcements & press releases related to the conversations:Perplexity: https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2025-05-14-Perplexity-Selects-PayPal-to-Power-Agentic-CommerceGoogle (commerce agent for merchants: https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/financial-services/introducing-an-agentic-commerce-solution-for-merchants-from-paypal-and-google-cloudOpenAI: https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2025-10-28-OpenAI-and-PayPal-Team-Up-to-Power-Instant-Checkout-and-Agentic-Commerce-in-ChatGPTAP2: https://developer.paypal.com/community/blog/PayPal-Agent-Payments-Protocol/ and https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/ai-machine-learning/announcing-agents-to-payments-ap2-protocolPayPal’s Agentic Commerce Services: https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2025-10-28-PayPal-Launches-Agentic-Commerce-Services-to-Power-AI-Driven-Shopping👉 Connect with Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeledmonds/👉 Learn more about PayPal: https://www.paypal.com/us/home🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic

In this episode of the Retailgentic Podcast, Scot talks with Stu Solomon, CEO of HUMAN Security, the company analyzing 20+ trillion digital interactions every week to detect bots, fraud, and now agentic AI behavior. Stu breaks down:Why bots now exceed human trafficThe 1300% growth in agentic activityHow HUMAN identifies good vs. bad botsThe rise of agentic logins, navigation, and even checkoutsWhy spoofing of ChatGPT and Perplexity traffic is explodingWhat retailers need to know about letting AI agents crawl their sitesThe coming world of agent-to-agent commerceIf you’re preparing for the future of retail, ad tech, AI commerce, or online security, this is essential listening.Timestamps02:20 — What HUMAN actually measures (bot vs human vs agentic)03:40 — Stu’s background (military → Amazon → banking → VC → CEO)06:40 — The logistics + retail connection09:00 — How HUMAN works: media + enterprise security11:00 — The digital journey from ad → login → checkout12:11 — HUMAN at 20 trillion interactions/week16:55 — Why HUMAN started publishing agentic data17:50 — 1300% growth in agentic activity18:30 — Machine traffic surpasses human traffic19:40 — The diversification of generative AI traffic20:30 — Agentic login + website navigation behavior24:00 — How HUMAN distinguishes bot vs agent vs human33:00 — The bad side: spoofed ChatGPT & Perplexity traffic38:30 — Retailers blocking bots without realizing it47:00 — The inevitability of agentic adoption48:40 — The future: agent-to-agent transactions49:30 — The end of 2FA hell?👉 Connect with Stu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stu-solomon-733a217/👉 Learn more about HUMAN: https://www.humansecurity.com/🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic

Nitin Mangtani, SVP & GM of Salesforce Commerce Cloud and former founder of PredictSpring, shares his remarkable journey through commerce technology. He discusses his early days at Google, launching innovative search products that transformed online shopping. Nitin dives into the evolution of PredictSpring, pivoting from mobile commerce to an enterprise POS solution, and the lessons learned from competition with giants like Shopify. Lastly, he explores the future of AI in retail, highlighting the potential of agentic commerce and how automation will reshape shopping experiences.

In this episode of Retailgentic, host Scot Wingo sits down with Johnathan McGowan, co-founder & CEO of PayOS, to discuss how AI agents will handle payments safely and compliantly.From Visa and Mastercard partnerships to the first live Agentic token transaction, Johnathan explains how “day-one-ready” infrastructure will power the future of Agentic Commerce.Timestamps:01:56 — Meet Johnathan McGowan, co-founder of PayOS04:00 — From Visa to PayOS: the founding story06:40 — What Agentic Payments really mean08:10 — Partnering with Visa & Mastercard10:25 — “Day-one-ready” vs new payment rails12:50 — What PayOS actually does15:30 — Agent builders and early use cases18:40 — Understanding “intent” in payments21:50 — Future-proofing across protocols (AP2, ACP, etc.)24:55 — How the first live Agentic transaction worked29:50 — Why PCI compliance & trust matter36:00 — The global scale of Agentic CommerceAs AI agents start making real-world transactions, companies like PayOS are making sure those payments are not just possible, but trusted, secure, and global from day one.👉 Connect with John: https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnathanm/👉 Learn more about the PayOS: https://www.linkedin.com/company/payos/🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic

OpenAI’s Chief Economist Ronnie Chatterji joins Scot Wingo on the Retailgentic Podcast to unpack OpenAI's recent National Bureau of Economic Research working paper "How People Use ChatGPT".From asking vs. doing to AI-powered shopping behavior, this deep dive reveals how generative AI is transforming the economy and how soon “agentic” commerce will redefine online retail.This episode is more than a window into OpenAI, it’s a look at the data shaping how humans and agents will interact, shop, and make decisions in the years ahead. If you care about where AI is really headed, this one’s not just worth your time, it’s required listening.Timestamps:02:00 – Meet Ronnie Chatterji, OpenAI’s Chief Economist06:00 – How the ChatGPT usage study began10:30 – What surprised the team most15:00 – Asking vs. Doing: the evolution of agentic behavior19:00 – The viral “colored columns” chart and what it shows22:00 – AI and the future of writing, learning, and work26:00 – How Ronnie bought jeans with ChatGPT28:00 – The 2.1% insight: early AI commerce signals33:00 – Voice + vision = the next leap for agentic shopping38:00 – The global view of AI adoption42:00 – What’s next in OpenAI’s research45:00 – Closing thoughts & how to follow Ronnie👉 Connect with Ronnie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaron-ronnie-chatterji/👉 Learn more about the paper we discuss: https://openai.com/index/how-people-are-using-chatgpt/🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic

In this episode of Retailgentic, Salesforce’s Director of Strategy and Consumer Insights Caila Schwartz joins Scot Wingo to break down Salesforce’s 2024 Holiday Forecast, and how AI agents like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini are transforming the path to purchase.They cover:How 21% of global holiday spend will be influenced by AIWhy discovery (not discounts) is this year’s themeWhy Baby Boomers are finally using ChatGPT for shoppingHow Gen Z is bringing the mall back with AI in handThe return of “Discount Chicken” and the Tuesday-after-Cyber-Monday surpriseTimestamps:00:00 – Welcome + Caila intro01:00 – What Salesforce’s Consumer Insights team does04:30 – Agentforce and AI momentum post-Dreamforce07:00 – Holiday forecast: “Discovery” as the 2024 theme08:00 – How Agentic tools are changing product search09:45 – $263B in AI-influenced sales12:00 – Gen Z, Baby Boomers, and agentic adoption15:00 – Q3 data: growth, traffic, and product detail engagement19:30 – LLM referrals vs social media conversions22:00 – ChatGPT Checkout and embedded commerce25:00 – AI in physical stores — 57% of shoppers use agents in-store28:00 – Holiday sales forecast and discount trends33:00 – The rise of “Discount Chicken”38:00 – Loyalty consolidation and the price-sensitive consumer42:00 – Gen Z’s love of in-store experiences47:00 – The future of unified data and physical + digital retail50:00 – Closing thoughts👉 Connect with Manil: https://www.linkedin.com/in/caila-schwartz/👉 Learn more about Salesforce: https://www.salesforce.com/🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic

In this episode of Retailgentic, Scot Wingo talks with Manil Uppal, Founder & CEO of CartAI, about building the “execution layer” of agentic commerce, where AI agents don’t just recommend products, they buy them. From his early startups acquired by H-E-B and UPS to his vision for CartAI, Manil shares how his team is solving the hardest problem in agentic shopping: completing checkout seamlessly across any retailer.Key Timestamps00:02:00 – Manil’s background: from delivery startups to AI infrastructure00:09:00 – The “aha” moment: from “Where to Buy” to “Go Buy It”00:15:00 – The 3 layers of Agentic Commerce: Catalog, Payments, Checkout00:20:00 – How CartAI executes merchant-native checkouts across platforms00:26:00 – Why retailers need a whitelist for good agents00:33:00 – Handling out-of-stocks, variants, and dynamic pricing00:40:00 – Thoughts on ChatGPT’s new ACP standard00:43:00 – Lessons from early food delivery startups for agentic commerce00:46:00 – The future: vertical AI apps, expert agents, and commerce everywhereAgentic commerce is evolving fast and CartAI is building the rails to make it work.👉 Connect with Manil: https://www.linkedin.com/in/maniluppal/👉 Learn more about CartAI: https://www.cartai.ai👉 Explore their substack: https://substack.com/@cartai🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic

In this special Retailgentic episode, guest host Kiri Masters turns the tables on our regular host, Scot Wingo (CEO, ReFiBuy). They unpack the next big retail revolution, Agentic Commerce, and what it means for shoppers, retailers, and brands as AI shopping agents like ChatGPT and Perplexity redefine discovery, loyalty, and checkout.Scot shares the lessons behind ChannelAdvisor, Spiffy, and now ReFiBuy, plus why messy product catalogs, ad overload, and loyalty programs will determine who wins in the AI marketplace era.⏱️ Key Timestamps00:00 – Intro: Kiri turns the tables02:15 – Scot’s early career & first startup07:50 – Building ChannelAdvisor14:30 – Lessons from going public20:05 – Spiffy and the services economy26:40 – Discovering AI → the spark for ReFiBuy33:00 – What is Agentic Commerce?38:20 – ChatGPT & Perplexity in the marketplace race45:00 – The product catalog problem explained51:00 – How ReFiBuy solves it with AI55:20 – Retailers’ edge: loyalty, data, customer experience59:00 – The next phase: marketplaces 2.01:02:00 – Close: The future of AI shopping👉 Connect with Scot: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thescotwingo/👉 Learn more about ReFiBuy: refibuy.ai🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along:📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://youtu.be/4xI9qXNU_R0