This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
Podmasters
Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous.Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon from just £3 per month to get each episode early plus bonus material and exclusive merchandise. From Podmasters, the team behind Oh God, What Now?, Paper Cuts and The Bunker.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Sep 25, 2024 • 28min
Israel and Hezbollah latest: Netanyahu's deadly gamble
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, discusses the intensifying conflict with Hezbollah, detailing Israel's military strategies and recent strikes that have shaken Lebanon. He addresses the psychological impact of ongoing skirmishes and critiques the response from international allies. The conversation also touches on Iran’s strategic distance from regional proxies and the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, already struggling with economic collapse and a history of conflict.
Sep 18, 2024 • 36min
Are we facing a new nuclear arms race?
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the looming threat of a new nuclear arms race. He explores the complexities that modern geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia and China, bring to nuclear deterrence. Panda highlights the risks tied to the potential expiration of the New START Treaty in 2026 and the challenges of misperceptions in nuclear conflicts. The conversation also touches on the paradox of Mutually Assured Destruction and the evolving nature of military strategies involving nuclear options.
Sep 11, 2024 • 33min
How to take down the tyrants
Marcel Dirsus, an expert on tyranny and author of "How Tyrants Fall," dives deep into the psyche of dictators. He discusses the 'dictator's dilemma' where mistrust leads to poor decisions, often dooming their regimes. The unintended effects of sanctions are explored, showing how they can sometimes bolster tyrants. Dirsus also shares innovative strategies for citizens to creatively resist oppression. Ultimately, he reveals how the illusion of power can crumble and the cycles of tyranny inevitably lead to decline.
Sep 4, 2024 • 45min
The A.I. Trap
Robert Trager, co-director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, and Shannon Vallor, Baillie Gifford Professor of Ethics at the University of Edinburgh, dive into the complex world of artificial intelligence. They explore its dual nature—offering unprecedented opportunities while posing significant risks. Key discussions include the ethical implications of AI in military applications, the potential for manipulation in democratic processes, and the urgent need for effective governance to balance innovation with accountability.
Aug 28, 2024 • 47min
Israel and Hezbollah: Is all-out war inevitable?
Oz Katerji, a knowledgeable commentator on Hezbollah, delves into the escalating tensions between Israel and the paramilitary group. He analyzes the recent missile exchanges and discusses the potential for broader conflict in the region. Katerji examines the complex influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and its relationship with Iran, highlighting the strategic dynamics that could affect future hostilities. The conversation also touches on the fragile situation in Gaza, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic solutions to avert catastrophic outcomes.
Aug 21, 2024 • 45min
Hotter Seas, Higher Tensions
Madeleine Cuff, an environment reporter for New Scientist, and Emma Beals, a contributor on critical security issues, dive into the alarming rise in ocean temperatures and their far-reaching implications. They discuss how warmer seas threaten military operations, possibly creating new conflict zones and destabilizing fragile states. The duo also highlights the role of climate change as a 'threat multiplier' and the urgent need for international cooperation to tackle these emerging security challenges. It's a wake-up call for global awareness!
Aug 14, 2024 • 38min
Ukraine’s Gamble: The Invasion of Russia
Oz Kat interviews Maria Avdeeva, a security expert and Research Director at the European Expert Association, about Ukraine's bold Kursk offensive. They delve into the surprising territorial gains and the shift from a defensive stance to an aggressive strategy. The discussion reveals the implications for both Ukrainian and Russian forces and explores the importance of military maneuvers in the context of negotiations. Avdeeva highlights the evolving dynamics between Ukraine and its Western allies amidst the conflict.
Aug 7, 2024 • 40min
Putin is beating our sanctions. Here’s how to stop him.
Gavin Esler, a commentator and expert on geopolitical issues, delves into the intricacies of Russia's ability to navigate international sanctions with guests Maria Shagina and Ian Garner. They explore how Putin circumvents sanctions through strategic alliances, particularly with nations like China, Iran, and North Korea. The discussion reveals the impact of these dynamics on Europe's stability and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Furthermore, they examine the challenges in enforcing sanctions and the need for stronger regulatory frameworks to counter evasion tactics.
Jul 31, 2024 • 43min
The West in retreat?
Gavin Esler chats with Samir Puri, a former UK diplomat and author of 'Westlessness,' and Dan Drezner, a Tufts University professor specializing in international politics. They dive into the fading dominance of the West, exploring how powers like China, India, and Brazil are reshaping global dynamics. The discussion covers the complexities of East-West relations, the rise of authoritarianism, and the implications for democracy. They also analyze the shifting trade dynamics between major players, including the growing role of emerging economies.
Jul 24, 2024 • 35min
The Dictators’ Cartel and What It Wants – Anne Applebaum talks to Gavin Esler
Guest Anne Applebaum discusses the emerging Dictators’ Cartel uniting autocrats worldwide, driven by wealth and power. They manipulate Western financial institutions for control, pose a threat to democracy. Strategies to combat authoritarian regimes and far-right movements are explored, highlighting the need for vigilance.
