Putin is beating our sanctions. Here’s how to stop him.
Aug 7, 2024
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Gavin Esler, a commentator and expert on geopolitical issues, delves into the intricacies of Russia's ability to navigate international sanctions with guests Maria Shagina and Ian Garner. They explore how Putin circumvents sanctions through strategic alliances, particularly with nations like China, Iran, and North Korea. The discussion reveals the impact of these dynamics on Europe's stability and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Furthermore, they examine the challenges in enforcing sanctions and the need for stronger regulatory frameworks to counter evasion tactics.
Despite being the most sanctioned country, Russia has found ways to circumvent sanctions, necessitating stronger enforcement measures from the West.
Putin's alliances, particularly with China and Iran, reveal a transactional nature that highlights Russia's growing dependency and vulnerability in the global landscape.
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The Global Impact of Sanctions on Russia
Russia currently holds the record for the most severe sanctions in history, surpassing sanctions against North Korea, Iran, and Syria. Over 16,000 sanctions target various aspects, including financial resources and key industries critical for war efforts. Although these sanctions aim to disrupt Russia's ability to fund its military operations and access essential materials, their effectiveness varies and is subject to debate. Enforcement challenges persist, as Russia finds pathways to circumvent many restrictions, highlighting the ongoing need for robust enforcement measures from Western governments.
Putin's Alliances and Geopolitical Strategy
While Vladimir Putin maintains relationships with countries like China and Iran, these are often superficial and based on immediate mutual benefits. Historical ties and current geopolitical interests shape these alliances, but they reveal an underlying vulnerability for Russia. For instance, despite courting China for trade, Russia's reliance on China has grown, making it less of an equal partner and more of a supplicant. This transactional nature of alliances means Putin must constantly navigate shifting loyalties and expectations, as former allies may exploit Russia's weakening position for their own agendas.
Russia's Military and Economic Struggles
The ongoing war in Ukraine has exacerbated Russia's economic and military challenges, leading to a reliance on foreign support for replenishing resources. Countries like Iran and North Korea are stepping in to provide military assistance, illustrating a growing dependency on less stable partners. Despite these relationships, issues persist with accessing advanced technologies, suggesting that Russia cannot fully compensate for its lost connections with the West. These dynamics contribute to the notion that while Putin attempts to project strength, his strategic position is increasingly precarious amid global scrutiny and internal dissent.
Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world. The Ukraine war might have left her internationally isolated and starved of resources – but Putin and his oligarch court are adept at avoiding financial restrictions, cutting side deals that enable them to fund the war and protect their power.
Are the West’s sanctions working? How can we tighten them? Is there really any difference between sanctions evasion and international criminal money laundering? And who are Putin’s true allies? Gavin Esler finds out from Maria Shagina – Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies – and Ian Garner of Poland’s Pilecki Institute, author of Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth.
Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production