This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Julie Norman, a Politics and International Relations professor at UCL, dives into the recent Iran-Israel ceasefire, heavily influenced by Trump's diplomacy. She discusses its immediate violations and the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions. The conversation also explores Israel’s political climate and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of U.S. involvement. Ultimately, they grapple with whether this fragile truce could lead to genuine peace or remain just a temporary pause in ongoing tensions.

In a gripping discussion, Paul Salem, a seasoned expert on the Middle East and former president of the Middle East Institute, unpacks the fraught dynamics between Israel and Iran. As tensions escalate, they explore the possibility of U.S. military involvement under Trump, and how his supporters are divided over intervention strategies. Salem also sheds light on the challenges facing Iran's regime amidst internal dissent, and the cautious responses from Arab nations. The conversation is a deep dive into the complexities of geopolitics in this volatile region.

Israel’s unprecedented attack on over 100 targets in Iran – including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military leadership – has stunned the region. But what does it mean? As Iranian state TV reports the deaths of key regime figures, and nuclear scientists, supreme leader Ali Khamenei promises heavy retaliation for “Operation Rising Lion”. Trump meanwhile warns “it will only get worse” for Iran unless they sign a deal over its nuclear programme. On this special edition, conflict reporter Oz Katerji is joined by Shashank Joshi, defence editor at The Economist, to look at a potential turning point for the Middle East. This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Gavin Esler welcomes Sir Richard Shirreff, former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and author of 'War with Russia.' They dive into the UK’s strategic defense review, highlighting the urgent need for increased military readiness against the Russian threat. Shirreff argues for a blend of traditional and modern military strategies, emphasizing NATO unity and economic resilience. The conversation also touches on the implications of contemporary nuclear deterrence and the ongoing significance of supporting Ukraine amid rising tensions.

More than three years since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, warfare has been transformed by drones.  Reports have stated that 70 percent of combat casualties in the war in Ukraine are now caused by drones, while the British security think tank RUSI calculates drones account for 60 to 70 percent of damaged and destroyed Russian systems. Ukraine, forced to innovate to hold off Russian forces, claims to be capable of making 4 million drones this year, Russia says it made 1.4 million in 2024 – using them, along with Iranian made systems, on the battlefield and in near constant attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.  To discuss the ethics, capabilities and impact of drones on the way humans fight, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Ulrike Franke, senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to https://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ukraine’s daring drone attack Operation Spiderweb has stunned Russia with its stealth, precision planning and the damage it unleashed on warplanes based deep within Russian territory.  Gavin Esler is joined from Kyiv by This Is Not A Drill co-host Oz Katerji, to discuss the impact of an operation planned meticulously over the past 18 months – and what it means both for the war and the nature of asymmetric conflict. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this discussion, Gregg Carlstrom, a Middle East correspondent for The Economist, highlights the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza amid ongoing military actions by Israel. He comments on the geopolitical dynamics, including the pressure on Netanyahu from far-right partners and the implications of Trump's recent visit aimed at brokering deals. The complexities of Arab leaders’ subdued support for Israel and the broader regional conflicts offer insight into the intricate interplay of power, aid, and foreign policy in this crisis.

Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala, a Professor at Warsaw University, provides keen insights into Poland's security challenges amid rising tensions in Eastern Europe. The conversation highlights Poland's geographical vulnerabilities with neighboring threats, particularly from Russia. Bieńczyk-Missala discusses the impact of the Ukraine war on Poland’s defense strategies and political landscape, as well as the country's increased military spending and growing role in NATO. The ongoing migration crisis and its security implications are also thoroughly examined.

Dareen Khalifa is a Senior Advisor for Dialogue Promotion at the International Crisis Group, while Karam Shaar is a Syrian economist and consultant with the United Nations. They delve into the implications of Trump's recent decision to lift sanctions on Syria, igniting celebrations in Damascus. The discussion covers the nation's daunting path to recovery, the fragility of its political transitions, and the complexities of shifting alliances with regional powers. Economic challenges and sectarian tensions are also highlighted, showcasing a crucial moment for Syria's future.

As the crisis across the India-Pakistan border escalates, can the conflict be brought back from the brink? To discuss the latest from the region and the wider context of a deep-rooted interstate rivalry, Gavin Esler talks to Christopher Clary, associate professor at University at Albany, State University of New York, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of The Difficult Politics of Peace: Rivalry in Modern South Asia. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to https://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Managing editor Jacob Jarvis. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices