This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Security analyst Jimmy Rushton, based in Kyiv, shares his insights on Trump's recent support for Ukraine's territorial claims. He discusses the potential implications of Trump's shift and the dynamics at the UN General Assembly. Rushton evaluates NATO's strategies, including the idea of shooting down Russian aircraft and the feasibility of coalition troop deployments. He also provides an assessment of the frontline conditions as winter approaches and highlights strategic flashpoints for Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions with Russia.

In this discussion, Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former Bank of England member, unpacks the ramifications of Trump's economic strategies. He explores how tariffs and inflation impact global security and the shifting dynamics as allies reconsider reliance on the U.S. dollar. Posen warns that a transactional foreign policy could weaken long-term partnerships and security benefits, raising concerns about the future of economic leadership. Tune in for an enlightening look at current global economic challenges!

Dinesh Kafle, a columnist at the Kathmandu Post and assistant professor, provides an insightful analysis of Nepal's recent 'Discord revolution.' He discusses how the protests ignited against a government social media ban, driven by Gen Z's frustration with corruption. Kafle details the escalation of violence that led to a government collapse and mass casualties. The intriguing selection of Sushila Karki as Prime Minister via online nomination highlights the power of youth-led movements. Kafle also reflects on the challenges and prospects for Nepal's political future.

Emile Hokayem, a Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, discusses the escalating crisis in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions against Hamas and the humanitarian impact on Gaza. He sheds light on Qatar's unexpected mediation role and the implications for Israel's relations with Gulf states. Hokayem explores shifting geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the complexities of U.S. partnerships in the region and the urgent need for collective strategies among Arab states to address ongoing conflicts and stabilize the volatile landscape.

Join Ian Garner, an Assistant Professor at the Centre for Totalitarian Studies, as he delves into the implications of recent Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace. The conversation uncovers how these agitations are reshaping NATO's strategic responses and triggering unprecedented political unity in Poland. Garner highlights the historical context of these tensions and explores sentiments surrounding Poland's security amidst shifting geopolitical landscapes. His insights illuminate the complex dynamics of Eastern European politics today.

Stacie Goddard, a Political Science Professor at Wellesley College, dives into the complexities of global leadership in a time of great power competition. She discusses the fragile balance of conflict and collaboration among Trump, Putin, and Xi. The conversation highlights the waning influence of liberalism and the rise of populism, urging a renewed focus on political engagement. Goddard emphasizes the significance of Ukraine's conflict in shaping international order, advocating for a proactive stance on global democracy amidst shifting power dynamics.

Dan Wang, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover History Lab and author of "Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future," joins to unravel China's technological ambition. Topics include China as an 'engineering state' outpacing the U.S. in infrastructure, the complex Taiwan tension shaped by economic ties, and the race for dominance in AI and semiconductors. Wang also tackles China's energy strategy, questioning its environmental commitments while pursuing independence. It's a fascinating glimpse into the intricacies of China's global strategy.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister from 2020 to 2024, shares insights on the precarious situation in Ukraine amid shifting diplomatic efforts. He discusses the unlikelihood of territorial concessions and highlights the deep mistrust surrounding negotiations with Russia. Kuleba elaborates on Ukraine's geopolitical significance and the importance of military readiness alongside diplomatic strategies. He also reflects on the implications of past negotiations, emphasizing the ongoing challenges in securing Ukraine’s sovereignty and a lasting resolution.

Keir Giles, a Russia expert from Chatham House and author of 'Who Will Defend Europe?', shares his insights on the implications of the recent Trump-Putin summit for Ukraine. He discusses the chaotic diplomatic efforts from Europe and the U.S., highlighting the uncertain outcomes of negotiations. The conversation dives into Ukraine's strategic maneuvers for military aid and critiques the impasse in U.S.-Russia relations. Giles emphasizes the importance of understanding Ukraine's perspective amidst the geopolitical challenges and ongoing support dynamics.

The highly potent opioid fentanyl is a major cause of death in the US – and the global trade of the drug is also a cause of growing geopolitical division.  Trump has claimed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are targeting the supply of the drug; his China tariffs have complicated efforts to stem exports of the ingredients needed for its production, and fractures among cartels pushing fentanyl could well reshape underworld activity worldwide. In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Emma Beals discusses the global effects of the fentanyl trade with Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and senior fellow in the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Brookings Institution. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by  Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to https://incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices