This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

The geopolitical shocks of 2025 have the potential to reverberate for decades to come. Trump’s America first agenda and the new US national security strategy risk European unity, security and the rise of far right politics; Trump's trade wars have served to increase the pressure on states looking to balance relations with the US, China and also a rising India, and Israel’s assaults in Iran, Gaza and Lebanon have changed the balance of power in the Middle East.  In the final episode of the year, Gavin Esler talks to Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, to examine how the geopolitical balance has shifted in 2025. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this discussion, Dr. Patrick Schröder, a Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House with expertise in energy transitions and rare earths, dives into the critical role of minerals like lithium and cobalt in clean energy technology. He highlights China's dominance in rare earth processing and the geopolitical shifts from oil and gas to mineral security. The conversation extends to the implications of AI on energy demand, Indigenous concerns in mining, and the need for international cooperation to navigate the challenges of this critical transition.

Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and arms control expert, discusses the complex dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He analyzes the limited territorial changes and heavy costs for Russia while highlighting Ukraine's defensive advantages and public sentiment for peace. Pifer critiques the Trump administration's peace push and contrasts negotiation styles. He emphasizes Europe’s crucial role in ensuring a sustainable settlement and explores potential leverage points to encourage Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations.

Join Richard Haass, a seasoned U.S. foreign policy expert and former advisor in Republican administrations, alongside Samir Puri, a Chatham House director and author specializing in global security. They dive into Trump's claims of peace achievements, debating their validity. Haass critiques the weakening of alliances due to Trump's transactional approach, while Puri highlights how many interventions are superficial rather than substantial. They address the implications for U.S. foreign policy amidst a shifting, multipolar world.

Nick Mabey, the CEO of climate think tank E3G and founder of London Climate Action Week, joins the conversation to explore the intersection of geopolitics and climate action. He discusses how US political dynamics and global conflicts distract from vital climate initiatives. Mabey delves into the challenges of energy security and the tension between short-term political goals and long-term climate strategies. He also highlights China's potential leadership in the climate sphere and the role of competition in driving emissions reductions, despite the risks it poses to vulnerable nations.

In this engaging conversation, political economist David Marsh, author of *Can Europe Survive?*, dives into Europe's multifaceted crisis. He discusses the challenges posed by an aggressive Russia, a lukewarm US commitment to NATO, and the economic strains exacerbated by the euro. Marsh reflects on the decline of political leadership and Europe's fading competitive edge in innovation. He emphasizes the need for reforms, financial mobilization, and adaptation to demographic shifts, while warning about the dangers to Europe's core values.

In this engaging discussion, Justin Bronk, a Senior Research Fellow for Airpower & Technology at RUSI, dives into the concept of a 'drone wall' to protect Europe’s Eastern borders. He explores its technical feasibility and the necessary mix of sensors and weapons. Justin also addresses challenges in intercepting cheap drones, comparing costs and technologies like the APKWS-2. The talk highlights the potential for proactive measures in Ukrainian airspace while weighing political repercussions and emphasizing the need for robust air-defense capabilities.

Bruce Schneier, a renowned cybersecurity expert, dives into the alarming intersection of big tech, AI, and authoritarianism. He reveals how dictators can exploit surveillance capitalism for control. Schneier critiques the superficiality of legal consent in data collection and warns about escalating U.S. government surveillance. He emphasizes the need for civic awareness against emerging techno-authoritarian risks and argues that political solutions are crucial in combating these challenges. AI's ability to process vast data poses new threats that demand immediate attention.

In this engaging discussion, Catherine Fieschi, a senior fellow at the Robert Schuman Centre, unpacks the rise of right-wing populism globally. She explores the populist playbook, which focuses on delegitimizing elites and simplifying complex issues. Fieschi analyzes the paradox of wealthy populists appealing to ordinary voters through relatable rhetoric, and discusses how authoritarianism can emerge once they gain power. The conversation also touches on the role of personality politics and effective resistance strategies seen in places like Poland and Denmark.

In this engaging discussion, James Sullivan, Director of Cyber and Tech at RUSI, sheds light on the escalating cyber threats from countries like China and Russia. He emphasizes the alarming frequency of attacks on critical infrastructure such as healthcare and energy. Sullivan highlights the necessity for businesses to treat cybersecurity as a duty of care and warns against complacency. He also explores the potential for international cooperation on cybercrime, all while navigating the complexities introduced by AI in the cyber landscape.