The transformation of China in the past quarter of a century has seen the nation become one of the world’s dominant powers alongside the United States. At the centre of this changing global balance lies the future of Taiwan, both separated from and inextricably linked to China. In the latest This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler asks what the Taiwan question tells us about the future of an ideological and economic rivalry, as China expert Kerry Brown discusses his new book The Taiwan Story, How A Small Island Will Dictate The Global Future. And to find out how we got here, Oriana Skylar Mastro, fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, discusses her book Upstart: How China Became A Great Power, to chart China’s economic explosion, growing military power and expanding global influence.Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big Tech’s innovations have remade every aspect of everyday life – but its libertarian-fuelled political side is darker. Elon Musk has repurposed X/Twitter as an active part of Trump’s re-election campaign, platforming far right agitators like Tucker Carlson, and spreading incendiary misinformation. Brazil is locked in a legal battle with Twitter over disinformation and Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov was arrested over allegations that his platform is open to criminal abuse. Do governments need to rein in the Tech Titans? Is Big Tech undermining democracy?  Gavin Esler talks to Marietje Schaake, international policy director of Stanford’s Cyber Policy Center and author of The Tech Coup: How To Save Democracy from Silicon Valley, and Scott Bade, senior analyst, geo-technology at the Eurasia Group.Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, and Randa Slim, director at the Middle East Institute, delve into the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. They discuss the failed diplomatic efforts following the violence since October 7th. The conversation highlights the intricate interplay of military considerations and public sentiment in Lebanon. They also explore the strategic implications of Iranian actions and the urgent need for a shift towards peaceful resolutions amid increasing regional conflict.

Gavin Esler welcomes Professor Ali Ansari, a leading expert from the University of St Andrews. They dive into the escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly the fraught dynamics between Israel and Iran. Ansari explores Israel's strategic moves against Hezbollah and Iran's cautious stance amid domestic discontent. They discuss the complex public sentiment in Iran, balancing sympathy for Palestinians against skepticism of Hezbollah. The conversation also touches on the challenges of de-escalation and the geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the role of the U.S. in fostering dialogue.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, discusses the intensifying conflict with Hezbollah, detailing Israel's military strategies and recent strikes that have shaken Lebanon. He addresses the psychological impact of ongoing skirmishes and critiques the response from international allies. The conversation also touches on Iran’s strategic distance from regional proxies and the dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, already struggling with economic collapse and a history of conflict.

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the looming threat of a new nuclear arms race. He explores the complexities that modern geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia and China, bring to nuclear deterrence. Panda highlights the risks tied to the potential expiration of the New START Treaty in 2026 and the challenges of misperceptions in nuclear conflicts. The conversation also touches on the paradox of Mutually Assured Destruction and the evolving nature of military strategies involving nuclear options.

Marcel Dirsus, an expert on tyranny and author of "How Tyrants Fall," dives deep into the psyche of dictators. He discusses the 'dictator's dilemma' where mistrust leads to poor decisions, often dooming their regimes. The unintended effects of sanctions are explored, showing how they can sometimes bolster tyrants. Dirsus also shares innovative strategies for citizens to creatively resist oppression. Ultimately, he reveals how the illusion of power can crumble and the cycles of tyranny inevitably lead to decline.

Robert Trager, co-director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, and Shannon Vallor, Baillie Gifford Professor of Ethics at the University of Edinburgh, dive into the complex world of artificial intelligence. They explore its dual nature—offering unprecedented opportunities while posing significant risks. Key discussions include the ethical implications of AI in military applications, the potential for manipulation in democratic processes, and the urgent need for effective governance to balance innovation with accountability.

Oz Katerji, a knowledgeable commentator on Hezbollah, delves into the escalating tensions between Israel and the paramilitary group. He analyzes the recent missile exchanges and discusses the potential for broader conflict in the region. Katerji examines the complex influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and its relationship with Iran, highlighting the strategic dynamics that could affect future hostilities. The conversation also touches on the fragile situation in Gaza, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic solutions to avert catastrophic outcomes.

Madeleine Cuff, an environment reporter for New Scientist, and Emma Beals, a contributor on critical security issues, dive into the alarming rise in ocean temperatures and their far-reaching implications. They discuss how warmer seas threaten military operations, possibly creating new conflict zones and destabilizing fragile states. The duo also highlights the role of climate change as a 'threat multiplier' and the urgent need for international cooperation to tackle these emerging security challenges. It's a wake-up call for global awareness!