This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Camille Grand, a distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former NATO Assistant Secretary General for defense investment, dives into the shifting dynamics of NATO amidst Trump’s presidency. They discuss the potential fallout if the U.S. were to withdraw from the alliance and the urgency of European nations enhancing their defense capabilities. With tensions from the Ukraine conflict reshaping military spending and strategies, Grand discusses Europe's path towards self-sufficiency and the implications of a less reliant transatlantic partnership.

In this engaging discussion, Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. military in Europe, dives into the complexities of the Ukraine conflict. He evaluates Donald Trump's claim of resolving the war in 24 hours and whether he has the influence to mediate peace between Putin and Zelenskyy. Hodges unpacks the harsh realities on the ground, critiques potential shifts in U.S. military aid under a Trump presidency, and discusses NATO relationships and defense strategies amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Sophia Besch, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, delve into Russia's undersea information warfare. They discuss recent threats to vital undersea infrastructure and the challenges in attributing sabotage to specific actors. The conversation highlights hybrid warfare's impact on European security and the significance of international cooperation to defend NATO countries. They also explore the complexities of communicating these threats to the public without inciting panic.

Gavin Esler welcomes Hagai M. Segal, a professor at NYU London and expert on geopolitical strategy, and Paul Salem, VP for international engagement at the Middle East Institute. They delve into the dramatic unraveling of Iran's regional influence, spotlighting its declining power and the internal strife fueled by public demands for democracy. The conversation highlights the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, future interactions with Gulf states, and the potential for regime change as Tehran grapples with unprecedented challenges.

Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East expert and Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, explores the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. He discusses the ambiguity of the deal and its potential for renewal of hostilities, citing external influences like Trump’s involvement. Hellyer shares insights on Hamas’s governance challenges and the future of Gaza post-conflict. The conversation highlights a fragile sense of hope and the complexities of diplomacy in the region, reflecting on the historical context of peace efforts.

With his unhinged foreign policy pronouncements, including demands that Greenland and the Panama Canal be handed over to the US, and vague threats to annex Canada, Donald Trump is already setting governments on edge. How will the world cope with an America First foreign policy where chaos and uncertainty are features not bugs? And as the self-styled dealmaker vows to bring a swift end to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, what do his nominations to key defence and security roles – among them hawks, libertarians and a TV news host – tell us about his priorities? Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the ‘known unknowns’ is Amy Mackinnon, national security and intelligence correspondent at Foreign Policy magazine.• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Join Jennie King, Director of Climate Disinformation Research and Policy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, and James Murray, environmental journalist and founder of BusinessGreen, as they unravel the tactics of climate disinformation. They discuss how fossil fuel interests manipulate narratives and the impact of misinformation on public perception. The conversation highlights emerging initiatives to ban fossil fuel ads and the importance of holding corporations accountable for their environmental claims as we strive for a sustainable future.

Suhail al-Ghazi, a Syrian investigator and researcher at the Syrian Archive, shares insights on the aftermath of Assad's fall and its implications for the future of Syria. He highlights the blend of hope and grief among Syrians as they confront their past. The discussion explores the rise of grassroots movements aiming for self-determination and the challenges posed by external influences. Recent military escalations and the role of international players are dissected, emphasizing the critical path to peace and the importance of engaging Syrian civil society.

In a deep dive into global terrorism, Charles Lister, a Middle East Institute expert on ISIS, and Ryan O’Farrell, a senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation focused on ISIS in Africa, unpack the group's alarming resurgence. They discuss the shift in ISIS tactics, rising attacks, and the dire situation in Syrian detainee camps. The conversation also highlights ISIS’s expanding influence in Africa and the challenges faced by local populations. With complex insurgent dynamics and dwindling Western support, there's a pressing need for renewed international attention.

Gavin Esler chats with Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute specializing in US-China trade, and Rebecca Harding, a trade economist with the British Foreign Policy Group. They dissect the implications of Trump's proposed tariffs and their potential to ignite a trade war. The conversation highlights concerns over rising inflation, the risks to American consumers, and how these policies may reshape global relations. They also explore China's strategic responses and the overarching shift from globalization to fragmentation in international trade.