This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Elizabeth Economy, political scientist and Hoover Institution fellow, explains how China is pushing into frontier domains from the Arctic and deep seabed to space and the internet. She outlines Beijing’s strategic use of commerce, rule-making and technology. Short, sharp takes on rare earths, renminbi ambitions, Taiwan risks and China’s internal limits.

A wave of protests has swept Iran and been met by a brutal crackdown. Could this mark the end of the ruling regime? Thousands have been killed and the government faces a continuing backlash, growing economic crisis and Trump’s threats to take military action against the nation.   Gavin Esler is joined by Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, and author of The Politics of Nationalism in Modern Iran. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people with money to spend? (Yes, they do exist). Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR brand in front of our influential listeners with podcast advertising? Contact ads@podmasters.co.uk to find out more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

So far in 2026, self-described peacemaker Donald Trump has captured Nicolas Maduro in a Special Forces raid in Venezuela and now has his eyes on Greenland. To discuss the realities of the Trump administration’s foreign policy and US politics in the year of the midterm elections, Gavin Esler is joined by Bill Kristol, editor at large of the Bulwark and former chief of staff to Vice President Dan Quayle. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump’s New Year attack on Venezuela and the capturing of President Maduro shocked the world. In the first of a series of episodes assessing the biggest security issues in 2026, Gavin Esler talks to former UK national security adviser Peter Ricketts about the year to come, the consequences of Trump’s Venezuela raid and the risks of a new era of great powers carving up the globe. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The geopolitical shocks of 2025 have the potential to reverberate for decades to come. Trump’s America first agenda and the new US national security strategy risk European unity, security and the rise of far right politics; Trump's trade wars have served to increase the pressure on states looking to balance relations with the US, China and also a rising India, and Israel’s assaults in Iran, Gaza and Lebanon have changed the balance of power in the Middle East.  In the final episode of the year, Gavin Esler talks to Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, to examine how the geopolitical balance has shifted in 2025. • Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this discussion, Dr. Patrick Schröder, a Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House with expertise in energy transitions and rare earths, dives into the critical role of minerals like lithium and cobalt in clean energy technology. He highlights China's dominance in rare earth processing and the geopolitical shifts from oil and gas to mineral security. The conversation extends to the implications of AI on energy demand, Indigenous concerns in mining, and the need for international cooperation to navigate the challenges of this critical transition.

Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and arms control expert, discusses the complex dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He analyzes the limited territorial changes and heavy costs for Russia while highlighting Ukraine's defensive advantages and public sentiment for peace. Pifer critiques the Trump administration's peace push and contrasts negotiation styles. He emphasizes Europe’s crucial role in ensuring a sustainable settlement and explores potential leverage points to encourage Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations.

Join Richard Haass, a seasoned U.S. foreign policy expert and former advisor in Republican administrations, alongside Samir Puri, a Chatham House director and author specializing in global security. They dive into Trump's claims of peace achievements, debating their validity. Haass critiques the weakening of alliances due to Trump's transactional approach, while Puri highlights how many interventions are superficial rather than substantial. They address the implications for U.S. foreign policy amidst a shifting, multipolar world.

Nick Mabey, the CEO of climate think tank E3G and founder of London Climate Action Week, joins the conversation to explore the intersection of geopolitics and climate action. He discusses how US political dynamics and global conflicts distract from vital climate initiatives. Mabey delves into the challenges of energy security and the tension between short-term political goals and long-term climate strategies. He also highlights China's potential leadership in the climate sphere and the role of competition in driving emissions reductions, despite the risks it poses to vulnerable nations.

In this engaging conversation, political economist David Marsh, author of *Can Europe Survive?*, dives into Europe's multifaceted crisis. He discusses the challenges posed by an aggressive Russia, a lukewarm US commitment to NATO, and the economic strains exacerbated by the euro. Marsh reflects on the decline of political leadership and Europe's fading competitive edge in innovation. He emphasizes the need for reforms, financial mobilization, and adaptation to demographic shifts, while warning about the dangers to Europe's core values.