This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Russia-Ukraine deal – Can anyone force Putin to change course?
Dec 4, 2025
Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and arms control expert, discusses the complex dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He analyzes the limited territorial changes and heavy costs for Russia while highlighting Ukraine's defensive advantages and public sentiment for peace. Pifer critiques the Trump administration's peace push and contrasts negotiation styles. He emphasizes Europe’s crucial role in ensuring a sustainable settlement and explores potential leverage points to encourage Putin to engage in meaningful negotiations.
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Marginal Russian Gains, Massive Costs
- Russia has gained only about 2% more Ukrainian territory in two years, showing very limited battlefield progress.
- Those small gains have come at horrific Russian casualty costs undermining long-term sustainability.
Fund Ukraine With Frozen Assets
- Use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a large EU loan and fund Ukraine for years of weapons purchases.
- This financial backing would sustain Ukraine's defense and raise costs for Russia, pressuring Putin politically and militarily.
Strikes Undermine Russian Narrative
- Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian refineries are degrading Russia's economy and undermining Putin's domestic narrative.
- As Russian citizens feel economic pain, political tolerance for the war may erode over time.
