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This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
Are we facing a new nuclear arms race?
Sep 18, 2024
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the looming threat of a new nuclear arms race. He explores the complexities that modern geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia and China, bring to nuclear deterrence. Panda highlights the risks tied to the potential expiration of the New START Treaty in 2026 and the challenges of misperceptions in nuclear conflicts. The conversation also touches on the paradox of Mutually Assured Destruction and the evolving nature of military strategies involving nuclear options.
38:51
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Quick takeaways
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly following Russia's actions and China's nuclear expansion, may signal the onset of a new nuclear arms race.
- The normalization of lower-yield nuclear weapons could dangerously lower the threshold for nuclear conflict, undermining deterrence principles established during the Cold War.
Deep dives
Nuclear Arms Race and Historical Context
The possibility of a new nuclear arms race is emerging as geopolitics shift, particularly following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. This move signaled a deterioration in relations between Russia and the West, coinciding with China's aggressive expansion of its nuclear capabilities under Xi Jinping. Despite a historic decrease in global nuclear arsenals—from approximately 70,000 during the Cold War to around 12,000 today—there are now nine recognized nuclear states, with North Korea’s increased threats and Iran’s nuclear ambitions contributing to global tensions. The interconnectedness of these geopolitical dynamics suggests that a broader, potentially more dangerous arms race could be imminent, urging countries to reassess their nuclear policies.
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