Forward Guidance

Alex Campbell, former head of commodities at Bridgewater and founder of Rose AI, dives into the market implications of China's DeepSeek AI model. He discusses the geopolitical dynamics of AI, especially between the U.S. and China, and the crucial role Taiwan plays in the chip supply chain. Campbell also tackles the challenges businesses face when integrating AI and the tension between productivity gains and employment loss. He explores the debate between open-source and proprietary AI models, highlighting the socioeconomic shifts they create.

This week features Capital Flows, a financial markets expert known for his keen insights into macroeconomic trends. The discussion revolves around Trump's executive orders and their potential impact on inflation and market reactions. They explore the intricacies of the yield curve and warning signs for equities, while also examining recent trends in inflation and interest rates. The conversation emphasizes the significance of careful market positioning amid shifting economic indicators and the implications of changes in the Federal Open Market Committee's dynamics.

Brent Donnelly, a seasoned expert in foreign exchange markets, shares his insights on FX volatility that could dominate in 2025. He discusses how tariffs from Mexico and Canada might influence the currency landscape and the interplay between inflation and Federal Reserve policies. Donnelly also breaks down his framework for currency trading, highlighting the significance of interest rate differentials. The conversation includes a deep dive into the dynamics of carry trades, particularly the yen carry trade, and the broader implications for global markets.

This week, the discussion dives into the latest CPI data and its influence on market trends. The hosts analyze economic indicators, highlighting contrasting inflation patterns between goods and services. They explore the evolving credit cycle and the potential impact of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The conversation also touches on shifts in market sentiment, with a focus on the rotation from large-cap to equal-weight indices and implications for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. A lively debate on trading strategies for Inauguration Day adds an intriguing twist!

Warren Pies, Founder of 314 Research, provides his insights on macro investing and monetary policy. He discusses his outlook for 2025 and the current state of the housing market, emphasizing inflation fears as overblown. The conversation shifts to equity market valuations, critiquing S&P 500 assessments amidst rising bond yields. Pies also explores the Fed's decisions on interest rates and the delicate balance between unemployment and inflation. His thoughts reveal a complex landscape for both growth and value stocks.

This week delves into the encroaching growth scare and how the dollar is triggering a global margin call. Discussions spotlight global yields nearing a breaking point and the housing affordability crisis plaguing many. The challenges of public spending and strong job reports provide a backdrop to navigating current economic uncertainties. Impact on the housing market from rising yields is examined, raising concerns over homeownership amidst skyrocketing mortgage rates.

Joe McCann, Founder and CEO of Asymmetric Fund, discusses the intersection of macroeconomics and crypto. He shares his tactical bearish outlook on risk assets and analyzes the ongoing dollar rally. The conversation dives into Bitcoin's resilience against dollar fluctuations and the potential for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. McCann also presents his crypto shopping list and highlights key investment opportunities for 2025, stressing the need for adaptive financial strategies in a shifting economic landscape.

Jonny Matthews, a renowned portfolio manager with experience at Brevin Howard and Citigroup, shares his expertise on the economic landscape. He discusses the implications of Fed policy on rising bond yields and the resilience of the U.S. labor market. Matthews sheds light on the potential consequences of the Trump Administration's market strategies and offers insights into investment tactics for uncertain times, focusing on the intricate relationship between productivity, inflation, and economic growth.

David Cervantes, a macro investor at Pinebrook Capital, shares valuable insights on the economic landscape, including reflections on the FOMC's recent decisions. He draws parallels between today's market conditions and the 1990s, discussing how traders manage their emotions during volatility. The conversation touches on the impact of recent Federal Reserve policies, expectations for 2025, and strategies for navigating inflation amidst political shifts. Cervantes emphasizes the importance of a resilient mindset in adapting to market changes.

Travis Kling, CIO of Ikigai Fund, shares his insights from a background in traditional finance. He discusses financial nihilism and the logistics of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, pondering its potential impact on global monetary policy. Kling dives into how this reserve might reshape Bitcoin's price trajectory and the interplay with central bank dynamics. He also tackles wealth inequality stemming from quantitative easing and the philosophical implications for Bitcoin owners, highlighting a cautious optimism for its future.